Analysis of the Enemy: Penn State Nittany Lions

What: Penn State Nittany Lions @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes 

When: Saturday, November 13th; 3:3 p.m. EST

Where: Along the Olentangy

Television: ABC or ESPN Regional

Weather Forecast: High- 62 degrees; Low- 40 degrees; 20% chance of precipitation

Penn State's Record: 6-3

Joe Paterno won his 400th game last weekend against Northwestern, and his reward is a game in Columbus against the Buckeyes the following weekend. Paterno's Lions have three losses on the season, two of which came against teams ranked in the BCS top 25 ( Alabama and Iowa.) The third happened at the hands of the Illinois Illini at home, and has been the definitive low point of the Penn State season. The loss touched off a firestorm of debate about every facet of the program, from who should be the starting quarterback to the timeline of Joe Paterno's retirement,. It was a bleak period for the program, yet Paterno's Lions have continued to improve since that point and have notched tough victories in back-to-back weeks.

Penn State's Chart

Penn State's offense struggled in finding an identity early in the season. Evan Royster was not running well behind a poor offensive line, and true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden had water wings attached to him by offensive coordinator Jay Paterno. As the season progressed, however, Penn State's improvement in the running game has provided a measure of consistency that they have relied on.

Matt McGloin (2010)

Redshirt junior Matt McGloin has replaced the aforementioned Bolden as the starting quarterback after putting together two impressive performances against Michigan and Northwestern. He received his opportunity when Bolden left a game October 23rd with a concussion. Since then, he has started against Michigan and relieved Bolden against Northwestern, playing well in both contests. We may still see Bolden in a supplementary role, but it's doubtful that McGloin won't be the primary signal-caller after his positive showings.

McGloin offers a little bit more assuredness than Bolden, and in viewing portions of his play the last few weeks, that's clearly the biggest difference between the two. Bolden demonstrates more raw ability than McGloin, but his hesitancy in passing the ball can, at times, lead to poor results and stagnancy for the Penn State offense.

I am still unsold on McGloin's ability to perform against a defense the level of Ohio State's, but I believe that he offers a better chance of victory for Penn State this weekend than they would have with Robert Bolden at quarterback. While he does not have any wow factor about him, McGloin also does not turn the ball over, and generally makes good decisions through his progressions and reads. He is not a particularly impressive passer in terms of arm strength and velocity, but he displays solid accuracy and a mean ball skills on the play-action pass. It may seem cliche, yet the concept of veteran savvy really fits McGloin. He does the little things well, even though he lacks the big-time talent.

Without an established quarterback, the Nittany Lions have reverted to a more traditional offensive philosophy, relying on a sound running game and a play-action passing attack. They are less multiple than they've been the past two seasons, when they ran the self-anointed "Spread HD" offense. The title was more or less marketing, as there was little that was spread about the system. Rather, it was a multiple offense that incorporated more quarterback running and multipurpose players like Derrick Williams. The system they run this season is not altogether too different stylistically, but it is much more narrow in scope and play selection.

The Nittany Lion offensive line is once again a source of contention amongst the fanbase. After graduating a few seniors two years ago, the line has underperformed in the eyes of many the past two seasons. Guard Stefen Wisniewski is a rock, however, and one of the best guards in the Big Ten.  The rest of the line is average to below average, and I see them struggling to run the ball against the Ohio State front seven. Their right tackle, Chima Okoli, is a replacement for Lou Eliades, who tore his ACL earlier against Temple. He has struggled in pass protection, and will face Cameron Heyward on most downs. I'd like to take this opportunity to wish Mr. Okoli good luck, for he will need it.

Three Biggest Threats

1. Evan Royster. Shrugging off a slow start to his season, Royster has put together three straight games where he has averaged more than five yards a carry. He does not possess any elite qualities in any one category but is above average in almost every one. Royster is now the all-time rusher in Penn State's history, passing Curt Warner against Michigan.
2. Derek Moye. Leading PSU's receivers with 33 catches and 615 yards, Moye is the most consistent contributor in Penn State's receiving corp. His four touchdowns are tied for the team lead, as well.
3. Devon Smith. While only the third receiver on the Lions, Smith provides something that their other players don't- incredible speed. Smith is a diminutive burner that they like to use on fly sweeps and other quick-hitters.

Defense

Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley is a bastion of stability in the Big Ten, running his 43 Over, Cover 3 defense with remarkably consistent performance each year. The Lions lost all three linebackers from last season and have experimented with multiple combinations of replacements out of Nate Stupar, Michael Mauti, Bani Gbadyu, Gerald Hodges, and Chris Colasanti. Mauti began the year as a reserve but has played his way into a starting role, and is a future star. Overall,  PSU's linebackers are another position that has improved as the season has progressed, with the youngsters growing as they gain experience.

The defensive line is not quite as good as in years past, but is still enough of a challenge to warrant individual mention. Defensive end Jack Crawford has dealt with a recurring foot injury but should be able to go this Saturday. Crawford is probably the biggest name on the Penn State defense, although his production this year has not matched last season's, when he exploded onto the scene with 31 tackles and five sacks. Defensive tackles Ollie Ogbu and Devon Still are solid, with Still leading the team in sacks (4). Defensive end depth has been tested after starter Eric Latimore injured his wrist midway through the season. Latimore is out for this game, and will be replaced primarily by Pete Massaro.

Tom Bradley's defensive scheme is not reliant on great individual talent in the secondary, which is good because they have none. Cornerback D'Anton Lynne is probably the closest to a standout performer that the Nittany Lions have in the back four, with safety Drew Astorino also being worth special notice.

Bradley does not play man coverage very often, and it's even more doubtful that he'll play man on a regular basis against Ohio State. They lack anyone who can compete with DeVier Posey, let alone lock him up, on a regular basis. It is likely that Bradley will instead stick with his Cover 3 defense, and I would not be surprised to see some other forms of zone coverage, as well.

Final Impressions

I think that Penn State will come in with a gameplan designed to keep it close early and hopefully pull off an upset late. Tom Bradley's defensive strategy is conducive to avoiding big plays and blowouts, but it also can struggle with adjusting to an opponent's strengths. Ultimately, their defense is not as good as it has been the past two seasons, and they lack a dominant player on either side of the ball that Ohio State must account for.

Look for Ohio State to test Penn State's ability to stop the run early. If Ohio State can move the ball on the ground , they will simply run the Nittany Lions to death.  Penn State has historically struggled to score against Ohio State in Columbus, and I do not expect that to change. The 17 point Vegas spread seems about right, yet I'd still err on the side of the Buckeyes giving the points rather than Penn State receiving them.