Analysis of the Enemy: Iowa Hawkeyes

What:  The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes

When: Saturday, November 20th; 3:30 p.m. EST

Where: Kinnick Stadium; Iowa City, Iowa

Television: ABC or ESPN Regional

Weather Forecast: High- 47 degrees; Low- 32 degrees; 10% chance of precipitation

Iowa's Record: 7-3

Vegas Line: Ohio State -3 to Iowa

After stumbling last weekend against the Northwestern Wildcats, Iowa is looking to bounce back at home on Senior Night against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is in his twelfth season as the Hawkeyes head coach, holding a record of 88-57. Ferentz has led Iowa to renewed success after the retirement of legendary coach Hayden Fry, with the Hawkeyes winning their first BCS victory in program history last season, defeating Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Ferentz's squad is always well-coached, but he's come under some heat this season for a disappointing 7-3 record after last year's success. He had this to say in a testy media session on Tuesday:

"We were getting ready to put Oregon's offense in this week and then they got 15 points, and I said ‘Hell, that ain't going to cut it,' " Ferentz sarcastically said of the high-scoring, top-ranked Ducks, narrow winners over Cal last Saturday.

While Ferentz was responding to criticism, his statement reflects his core football values and thus his program's core values. Iowa has not been a reactionary team under Ferentz; they run their offense, defense, and special teams a certain way, and they believe in what they are doing, in good times and bad. This dedication to a specific style can anger some fans, but the importance of a process is that they never become lost in terms of their identity. There are benefits and drawbacks to Ferentz's commitment to this identity, but it has worked extremely well for the Iowa program over the past twelve years and is unlikely to change.

These statistics, quite frankly, reveal a team that has underachieved in the victory column. The S&P+ and FEI numbers are very impressive, and they indicate that Iowa has simply played poorly at the wrong times. These adjusted figures belong to a team that should be playing for a national championship right now, not a team whose head coach is under fire by the media and fanbase. Iowa's late collapse against Northwestern was simply a continuation of a trend this season; Iowa was in a tight game against Arizona after falling behind early, and they were neck-and-neck with Wisconsin, but poor fourth quarters have doomed them in all three of their losses. Obviously, Ohio State hopes to have some breathing room going into the fourth quarter of this game, but if not, there is reason to be hopeful that the fourth quarter will go Ohio State's way.

Ricky, la Americanzi, Stanzi

Senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi has put together a fine year. With an improvement of ten points in his completion percentage, the Americanzi is performing at an all time high. Stanzi, a native of Mentor, has improved most, though, in his reduction of crippling offensive mistakes. After tossing 15 interceptions a year ago, Stanzi has only thrown four this season for an excellent interception percentage of 1.4%.

The Iowa passing offense does not rely on the quarterback to be excellent, but it is structured around play-action and, like any offense, good decision-making. Stanzi's improvement in the latter section has aided his team tremendously, even if the record does not reflect that.

As usual, the depth chart at running back is a mine-field for Iowa. With Jewel Hampton suffering another devastating ACL tear and Brandon Wegher leaving the team for personal reasons, Iowa is down to sophomore Adam Robinson and true freshman Marcus Coker as the only viable, talented alternatives. Robinson is a stud, and he carries a 4.71 yard per carry average along with ten touchdowns scored on the year. Robinson and Coker are typical Iowa backs- not huge but sturdy, not fast but quick enough, and not exceptional but good. The running back position is another example of the Ferentz system; everyone they recruit understands zone-blocking and fits the one-cut-and-go philosophy that the program abides by.

Iowa's offensive line is not quite as good as last season but still stolid. Two senior guards, Julian Vandervelde and Josh Koeppel, lead the group, with Riley Reiff and Markus Zusevics playing the tackle positions. Kirk Ferent's son, James, plays center for the Hawkeyes. As a group, they run Iowa's power zone scheme very well, although pass protection has definitely taken a hit with Bryan Bulaga's jump to the NFL.

Three Biggest Threats

1. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. DJK, as he's known colloquially, leads the Hawkeye receivers in touchdowns with seven, and he's tied with Marvin McNutt for the team lead in receptions at 41. DJK is a well-rounded receiver and a significant vertical threat.
2. Marvin McNutt. He averages 16.10 yards per reception and is almost an equal threat to Koulianos. Both Iowa receivers are future NFL players- likely high round picks- and they both must be accounted for.
3. Adam Robinson. Robinson is not an especially dangerous threat but he fits Iowa's scheme well and is talented enough to be a steady back. Because of Iowa's dedication to running the ball, Robinson's name will be called often on Saturday.

Defense

Defensive coordinator Norm Parker is recovering from a foot amputation after a lifelong battle with diabetes, but his philosophy still goes on unchanged in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes employ a 4-3, Cover Two base defense that they adhere to in almost all circumstances. Iowa is one of the few teams that do not sub in an extra defensive back when their opponent goes to multiple wide receiver sets.

Defensive linemen Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Mike Daniels, and Karl Klug form one of the finest groups in the country, and it's their talent that allows Iowa's defense to be so successful with such a standard scheme. Clayborn is almost assuredly a first round pick in April's NFL draft, and Klug is one of the most tenacious defensive tackles in the country. The group as a whole does an excellent job controlling the line of scrimmage, allowing Iowa's linebackers to make plays. They are by far the best unit on the Hawkeye defense, and if the Bucks want to move the ball, they will have to start by moving the front four.

Outside linebackers Troy Johnson and Jeremiha Hunter are seniors, but middle linebacker James Morris is a true freshman. He has generally played well this season, but Northwestern had success last weekend passing against him. Morris got lost in coverage a few times and failed to reroute his receiver away from the weak point in the defense. It's something to keep in mind as you are watching the game.

After losing star Amari Spievey to the NFL draft last season, Iowa has lost some name quality season at the cornerback spot. Junior Shaun Prater and sophomore Micah Hyde man the spots for Iowa, but have struggled at times. Hyde, in particular, has given up some big plays in pass coverage.

Safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood stabilize the secondary, with Sash being a future NFL player, for sure. Greenwood is not special, but he does not make mistakes often and is almost always in the right place. Because Iowa does not sub out for extra defensive backs, these safeties must be versatile.

Final Impressions

Iowa offers more of a challenge than Penn State, not only because they are a better team but because the circumstances surrounding the game make it much more difficult. Senior Night is always emotional, no matter what team is involved, but having a big opponent like Ohio State coming in for the last home game of the season adds fuel to the fire. With a win, Iowa will not be able to remove the disappointment they feel this season, but they will be able to end their season in memorable fashion.

Schematically, Iowa is Iowa. It's going to come down to how well the two teams play between the white lines. I expect the Bucks to come out more focused than they were last weekend against Penn State, and I expect a battle the entire ballgame. Iowa is better than their record shows and will be hoping to prove it.