Analysis of the Enemy: Michigan Wolverines

What: The Game

When: Saturday, November 27th; 12:00 p.m. EST

Where: Along the Olentangy

Television: ABC

Weather Forecast: High- 39 degrees; Low- 22 degrees; 10% chance of precipitation

Michigan's Record: 7-4

Vegas Line: Doesn't Matter

This is the best Michigan team of the past three seasons, and Rich Rodriguez is once again coaching for his job security. I begin with this to sober up any ideas of an easy victory. There are no easy victories against Michigan, because the effort and emotion required to prepare for The Game is always high. And both will be high on Saturday.

Michigan Team Chart

Michigan is one of the most fascinating teams to examine in recent memory, because they combine a record breaking offense with a record breaking defense. It just so happens that they are breaking records on different ends of the spectrum. Led by sophomore Denard Robinson, Michigan's spread option offense is finally running like Rich Rodriguez hoped it would, averaging an astounding 514.5 yards per game. The lowest number of points they've scored this season is 17, against Michigan State, and the next lowest is 28, which occurred on two occasions- against Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

On the opposite side of success, defensive coordinator Greg Robinson has had one of the more trying coaching years in his career, and that's even more remarkable considering he was a head coach at Syracuse for four seasons where he went 10-37. The Michigan defense is last or near last in the Big Ten in almost everything, and their adjusted numbers aren't much better. At Rich Rodriguez's behest, Robinson switched the defense to a hybrid 3-3-5 scheme this off-season that does a lot of things but none of them especially well.

When combining offensive and defensive metrics, the S&P+ figure is kinder to Michigan as a whole than FEI, but averaging the two together ranks them as about the 35th best team in the country, a ranking I see as pretty accurate. They have enough offensive talent and ability to be dangerous, but they lack enough defensive talent and ability to be deadly.

Denard Robinson

In case you weren't sure, the Michigan offense runs entirely through the quarterback. Denard Robinson was the earliest player to receive Heisman buzz this season, and although that sentiment has dissipated due to Michigan losses, he is still producing incredible numbers on a game-by-game basis.

Robinson is not an incredibly talented passer, but the framework of the spread option offense creates easier opportunities to pass than many other offensive schemes. Robinson's running ability is the primary threat in the offense, and everything is built off of it. As such, Robinson is efficient enough as a passer to take advantage of those opportunities. The key for Ohio State's defense will be containing the rushing threat of Robinson without sacrificing sound coverage in the secondary. Many of Michigan's big plays come from teams that overcompensate against Robinson's legs, thus allowing him to throw for easy yards in the passing game.

And make no mistake, there is a reason that so many teams overcompensate for Robinson's rushing ability. The following is just a simple quarterback lead play, no different from when it was run out of the single-wing a half century ago:

Clearly, Robinson is an explosive runner, although I would not recommend Indiana's strategy or execution in containing him. Not only did Indiana do a horrendous job in attempting to tackle him, but they did not have enough men near the line of scrimmage to impede his immediate progress.  Likely, they thought that playing a more aggressive coverage scheme than the Cover 4 they were in would leave them susceptible to a big play in the passing game, which may have been true, but it also did not respect Robinson's ability to provide a big play by himself. In fact, possibly the greatest advantage that Robinson's talent provides is that normally obvious passing downs are not always normally obvious passing downs. He can break off long runs if he gets into your secondary.

For Ohio State to be successful on defense against Michigan, they must do two things categorically well: 1.) Limit big plays. Don't let Michigan score quickly, and it becomes a game of possession efficiency instead of a shootout. 2.) Do not let Robinson run into the secondary.  His open field quickness is unmatched in college football today, and halting his progress within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage is a must.

Now, I'm well aware that saying this is much easier than doing this. Limiting big plays and preventing Robinson from running in the open field will be difficult, and there will be a talented Michigan offensive line on the opposite side trying to make big plays and get Denard Robinson into the secondary.

The Wolverines' offensive line is probably one of the more overlooked story lines in the Big Ten this season, as they've been overshadowed by Robinson's success. But they are an excellent zone-blocking team in the running game, and they've paved the way for Michigan's offensive improvement this season.Ohio State's defensive line matches up better against zone-blocking teams than man-blocking ones, though, and the Wolverines' line still has significant deficiencies in pass protection. It will be a battle of containment on Saturday more than pressure, and it's one the Buckeyes can win.

Three Biggest Threats

1. Denard Robinson. If you haven't read the preceding seven paragraphs, at least know that Denard Robinson is Michigan's greatest offensive threat and the one Ohio State should be most concerned about.
2. Vincent Smith. Leading Michigan running backs in carries and yards, Smith plays the role of Robin to Denard Robinson's Batman. He suffered a concussion against Wisconsin last weekend and is questionable for the game, but if he plays, he is someone to know.
3. Roy Roundtree. An Ohio native from Trotwood-Madison High School, Roundtree has developed into Michigan's best receiver and leads them with 58 receptions for 839 yards. Roundtree had a big game against Ohio State last season, with 9 catches for 116 yards. Michigan will certainly look to get the ball to him in this game.

Defense

Greg Robinson is almost assuredly on his last legs as Michigan's defensive coordinator. After switching from a 4-3 under defense to a 3-3-5 hybrid scheme this season, the Wolverines have only gotten worse statistically, although not all of it is Robinson's fault. Injuries and poor recruiting have led to a young and untalented defense that tries to do a ton of different stuff, little of which is successful. I use the ambiguous word "stuff" here, because I'm not sure how to relay exactly what Michigan does on defense. They play every coverage imaginable but have relied on zone more this year with a depleted secondary; they shift and move around more than most NFL teams; they zone blitz a lot; and, ultimately, they give up ton of yards.

Nose tackle Mike Martin is very good, and he's been upgraded to probable for Saturday after battling an ankle injury against the Badgers last weekend. He is Michigan's best defensive player but won't be entirely effective because of the ankle and other injury issues. Likewise, hybrid linebacker/defensive end Craig Roh is probable for The Game after suffering a concussion against Wisconsin.

It's hard to believe it, but Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh are still starting linebackers at Michigan. They are both about the same players they've always been, and Michigan's failure to either develop or replace them as starters is a strong indicator of where Michigan is as a program right now. They are joined by redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon to round out the linebacking unit.

The Wolverine secondary is one of the most hodgepodge, band-aided units you'll ever find in college football. They alternate having four and five defensive backs on the field, with former walk-on safety Jordan Kovacs being the rock of the group at strong safety. Kovacs is not particularly talented, but he does a well-enough job in not screwing up. Ohio State had success running laterally to Kovacs side in last year's game, and I would expect that to hold true this season, as well.

True freshmen Ohio natives Ray Vinopal and Courtney Avery are both seeing significant time in the defensive backfield after injuries decimated Michigan's upperclassmen. Vinopal is from Youngstown Cardinal Mooney and plays safety/spur, and Avery is from Lexington and plays corner. Both are small and make an abundance of freshman mistakes.

Another true freshman, Carvin Johnson, and a redshirt freshman, Cam Gordon, play a significant number of snaps in the secondary.

Final Impressions

Ohio State's offensive strategy against Michigan will be to either score quickly or put together long, time-consuming drives that limit Michigan's offensive possessions. Terrelle Pryor should have a big day passing against the Wolverines, and I expect the Buckeyes to run an offensive strategy akin to what they did in the start of the season- heavy formations, running the ball, and play-action over the top. It's about as simplistic a gameplan a pro-style offense can have, but against a Michigan defense with limited talent and freshmen defensive backs, it will work.

One last note, Michigan is having trouble with their placekicking yet again, and I expect them to go for it on multiple fourth downs throughout the game. And if I am expecting it, I am sure that the Ohio State coaches are as well. They've watched far more film than I have, and they will have the team ready.

Screw Blue; Go Bucks!

 "How did Woody feel about Michigan? Let me illustrate with one story. One time we were at the Quarterback Club and the team was being introduced and a freshman had on a blue tie. Woody took one look at that blue tie, and he walked over and whipped it off that freshman. The audience went wild. We learned quickly that tradition dictated we wear ties of scarlet and gray..."

-Randy Gradishar, from the book "What It Means to Be a Buckeye" by Jim Tressel and Jeff Snook. Source: BuckeyeFansOnly.com