Sugar Bowl Preview: The Arkansas Offense v. OSU Defense

The Sugar Bowl has taken a back seat in OSU country following the unfortunate violations and suspensions.  Nevertheless, the show must go on.  OSU still faces Arkansas with an opportunity to knock the SEC monkey off their collective backs.

The most intriguing match-up (at least on paper) in this Sugar Bowl is the Arkansas offense v. OSU defense.  Arkansas is an offensive-based football team.  Bobby Petrino is one of the best offensive coaches in the country and offensive skill position players is where Arkansas' talent resides.  Facing that is an OSU defense that consistently constitutes one of the elite units in the country and constantly presents a myriad of coverages and looks.  OSU's defense has held down high-scoring Texas and Oregon units to below average days in the last two BCS games, and must complete the hat-trick for OSU to be successful in the Sugar Bowl.

The Petrino Offense:  Pro-Style and Multiple

The Arkansas offense utilizes--more than any team left in major college football--a multiple  pro-style offense.  (Though the OSU offense utilizes many of the same elements).  Arkansas employs the typical pro-style personnel and formation groupings one would expect:  large doses of 11 (1 back, 1 TE), 12 (1 back, 2 TE), and 21 (2 back, 1 TE) personnel.  They also like to feature 'open I', with 3 WR and no TE.

In passing situations, Arkansas goes shotgun, employing 3 and 4 WR sets--again what one would expect from an NFL offense.  In particular, Arkansas features a large amount of trips packages.

Turning from formation to play-calling, Arkansas also employs a pro-style run game, heavily predicated on a zone rushing attack, with elements of sprint draw and counter trey.  Arkansas' by and away preferred running play is stretch (as it is for other 1 back run teams like Iowa and Wisconsin). 

Arkansas will run stretch both as a hand-off and toss sweep. 

Arkansas does a nice job out-flanking defenses with stretch: by running it to the boundary; by running weakside; and by using pre-snap motion to change strength.   Stretch is Arkansas' favorite play for several reasons.  First, it gets Knile Davis, their leading rusher, to the outside.  He has good top-end speed, but is a very angular runner, so he is more effective where he can stick his foot in the ground and try to gain the edge, rather then cutting off blocks between the tackles.  Second, it negates the relative weakness of Arkansas' offensive line (as a unit).   Arkansas' talent is at the skill positions.  With the exception of perhaps tackle DeMarcus Love, Arkansas does not have the offensive line that is going to win games in the trenches.   Stretch allows Arkansas' line to neutralize the opposing defense while allowing Davis to get the edge.

In any event, the run game is not where Arkansas' bread is buttered.  Davis may have rushed for 1,000 yards, but Arkansas' rushing yards result from the fact that in the chess match that is football defenses cannot devote resources to the run game.  Arkansas is a pass-first offense and this is where Petrino makes his name.

The Conceptual Pass Game

Arkansas is a perfect example of a NFL-style conceptual passing game.  Petrino is a decedent of the Don Coryell one-back passing game that was brought to college football by Dennis Erickson and his progeny and defines every modern-NFL offense.  The system is so effective because it attacks pass coverage by either horizontally or vertically stretching a portion of a pass defense to gain a numeric advantage.  A basic example is a 3-verticals route vs. cover-2.  It provides three receivers horizontally stretching the two deep defenders.  This makes the cover-2 safeties wrong every time.

  Here is a good example of how Arkansas attacks coverages from their loss to Alabama.  (H/T:  Brophy).  Alabama presents Arkansas with quarters coverage.  Arkansas pass play design attacks this look.  

The weak-spot in cover-4 is the underneath flat.  This is exactly what Arkansas attacks.  Z and H release vertically, holding the Corner and Free-Safety.  F then releases on a wheel route to vacated zone.  In quarters match-up coverage, the Will is responsible for checking F, but he practically can not get to his responsibility.  The result is a big-play.

Arkansas features the full panoply of the NFL pass plays, provviding Petrino the opportunity to attack every possible defense look.  Several staples stand out.  Arkansas often runs the shallow series, particularly the drive route.( (H/T:  SmartFootball):

 

Arkansas also features the shallow-in.  The shallow series is utilized in particular against man coverage.

What makes Arkansas and Petrino different than much of current college football, however, is that Petrino looks to throw the ball vertically.  Arkansas looks to attack the deep segment of zone coverages, in particular with 3-verticals, 4-verticals, and 'Mills.'  These are designed for cover 2, cover 3, and cover-4, respectively.  Take 'Mills' for example.  Cover 4, at its simplest, is a match-up zone where the safety is responsible for the inner quarter, but also for the number 2 WR releasing vertically.  Mills attacks cover-4 by holding the safety with a vertical release curl route, and then having No. 1 run a post route behind the safety into that safety's zone.

Here, Arkansas perfectly executes 'Mills' against LSU's cover-4.

Arkansas always looks to throw vertical routes to the corner.  This is made possible by Ryan Mallet's arm strength.  Mallet can make the throw with enough strength that he can thread the needle before the safety can come over.  The first example is a flood/sail route (On a side note--a defense should generally not play cover 2 against trips):

The second is 3-verticals (a classic example of 3-verts vs. cover-2):

From there, Petrino adds the small wrinkles that make NFL-offenses successful.  Arkansas features specialty receiver routes, such as 'jerk routes' (so called because it makes the defender look like a jerk).  Petrino builds in 'choice' routes for his receivers, allowing them to break depending on whether the middle of the field is open or closed.

Petrino also likes to add a HB wheel route to the drive combination.  The wheel serves to pull the flat defender from the shallow cross or, if the flat defender stays with the cross, opens up a big play.

Finally, what makes Petrno such a good play-caller is that he breaks tendencies and takes advantage of opportunities presented by the defense.  For example, Arkansas will often run stretch in third and long when the defense is least expecting it.

The OSU Response

OSU thus faces a potent Arkansas attack.  But the OSU defense has repeatedly demonstrated its mettle as well, and several aspects of this match-up bode well for the Buckeyes.  For all the superlatives cited above, Arkansas' offense can have difficulty sustaining drives. Instead, they are reliant upon big pass plays for scores.  For instance, against LSU--a comparable defense--Arkansas' scored on pass plays of 39, 80, and 85 yards.  Several factors are potentially at play.  A vertical passing game is more hit-or-miss.  Arkansas does not have the consistent run game to churn out drives.  Sacks are another issue.  Mallett exacerbates this issue, both in his lack of mobility and holding the ball too long trying to make plays. 

Against Arkansas' big-play reliant offense is Ohio State, a defense that consistently leads the country in not giving up plays for 20 or more yards.  Jim Heacock's philosophy is predicated on not allowing big plays, making opposing offenses sustain drives, and then turning up the pressure in the red zone.  Each team will thus look to impose their philosophy.  If OSU's defense is able to play their defensive style they can make Arkansas uncomfortable and force Arkansas to prove they can consistently move the football. 

Ryan Mallet's arm strength is also his weakness.  Because he can make any throw, he will try to force balls into those deep out windows, leading to interceptions.  Here Mallet attempted to force a 3-verticals route to the outside.

OSU has excelled in forcing turnovers this year, forcing 18 interceptions. 

Schematically,the most intriguing match-up is the Arkansas passing game versus the OSU defensive coverage scheme.  OSU mixes and matches coverages better than any team in college football (save perhaps Nick Saban).  They do a nice job disguising coverage and keep opposing offenses uncomfortable.  Arkansas' conceptual passing game is predicated upon having a good sense of what coverage they will face to call the appropriate coverage beater.  If a coordinator is uncertain regarding coverages or calls the wrong routes against the called coverage, any offensive advantage is negated (though granted Petrino combats such uncertainty by doing things such as calling choice routes).  Mallett is unsettled by disguised and shifting coverage schemes, having difficulty reading changing coverages.

By now, the prescription for OSU's defense is perhaps apparent.  OSU must force their style of play and make Arkansas dink and dunk the ball underneath to sustain drives.  OSU needs to stop the Arkansas run game without committing extra defenders to run support.   OSU will certainly take that approach, as that is their philosophy, but their front 7 must contain the Arkansas run game and not allow Petrino to turn to that as an effective counter. 

The Buckeyes must constantly vary their secondary looks to keep Petrino & Mallet off balance.  Vary between the coverages OSU has used well all year:  cover 4, Q-Q-H. cover 3, cover 2, TCU cover 2-blue robber combo; cover-1 robber, and the like.  From there, OSU must get pressure on Mallet.  He is a different quarterback with people in his face than with time.  With pressure, OSU can force Mallet into mistakes.  The Buckeyes are fortunate in this regard with CB Travis Howard's emergence.  OSU can now play three cover corners in nickel, providing the Buckeyes more freedom to mix and match zone and man blitz schemes on 3d down.  Look for OSU to turn up the blitz pressure, particularly when Arkansas gets into OSU territory.  OSU needs to force Mallet to try to rely on his arm to make tight throws and force interceptions.

Conclusion

In sum, while Arkansas utilizes a great offensive scheme and has talented skill position players, this is a good match-up for the OSU defense.  When Arkansas has the football it will come down to who can establish their style of play.  If OSU can keep Mallett off-balance and force Arkansas into turnovers and negative plays, the OSU defense has the potential for another successful bowl season.  Look for part II of my Sugar Bowl preview, where I take a look at the match-up when OSU has the football.