Analysis of the Enemy: Illinois
Ohio State just finished playing a program that is too poor to avoid scheduling Ohio State, and now they have the program that is too poor to fire its terrible coach. The Illini are in somewhat of a rut right now, waiting for Ron Zook to either prove that he can turn this ship around, or for his contract to expire so they can avoid paying the buyout. As it is, he is basically coaching with an entire skeleton of another staff around him, after the Illini administration forced him to fire four coaches and demote two others.
| Category | Total Offense | Total Defense | Offensive S&P+ | Defensive S&P+ | Team S&P+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 359 | 333 | 101.9 | 109 | 214.7 |
| Rank | 75th | 49th | 56th | 19th | 49th |
There's been improvement, for sure. New defensive coordinator Vic Koenning has had much more success than his predecessors. The Illini held Missouri to a season low 23 points in the first week of the season, and have improved both their run and pass defense rankings over last season.
Likewise, new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, brother of Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino, has installed his version of his brother's offense, complete with new quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. The redshirt freshman brings a slightly different style than that of the finally departed Juice Williams.
Quarterback
| Pass Completions | Pass Attempts | Comp. % | Yards | Passing TDs | INTs | INT % | Rushes | Yards | Rushing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 57 | 54% | 380 | 3 | 3 | 5.30% | 40 | 204 | 1 |
Scheelhaase has mobility, but it is less of an athletic, quick-twitch type of mobility, and more of a straight-line speed. As with any young quarterback, he's making mistakes and plays in bunches, and he should generally be viewed as an improvement over the highly volatile Juice Williams, if only for his youthful possibility.
Offensive Line + Heavy Personnel
| Category | Sacks Allowed | Sack Rate | TFLs Allowed | N.P.P. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5 | 8.10% | 17 | 11.00% |
| Rank | 37 | N/A | 26 | N/A |
More focus is being placed on heavy personnel in Petrino's offense. As the Illini move away from the pseudo-spread/option/multiple wide receiver amorphous scheme they were running last season, they are increasingly taking snaps under center and using tight ends and fullbacks.
Starting offensive guard Hugh Thornton will presumably miss this game after being picked up on a Battery and Damages charge last weekend. It's hard to fault him, though, after reading this chilling story of his past.
Hit the jump for more, including a look at Illinois' skill position athletes and a game prediction.
Skill Positions
| Player | Receptions | Yards | Y/R | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Jenkins | 12 | 190 | 15.83 | 2 |
| Jarred Fayson | 8 | 46 | 5.75 | 0 |
| Eddie McGee | 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Sykes | 2 | 22 | 11 | 0 |
There is some talent here. Ron Zook has recruited reasonably well in his time at Illinois, especially at the skill positions. Junior A.J. Jenkins impressed late last season, and has taken over as the number one target so far this year. Florida transfer Jarred Fayson is talented, but has not yet produced. Former backup quarterback Eddie McGee took one for the team and became a receiver. A name to keep an eye on is true freshman Darius Millines, out of Delray Beach, Florida. He is an explosive athlete that could have played for any team in the country if it weren't for poor grades in high school. He has not figured heavily into Illinois' offensive plans this season, but he is a budding star, in the mold of the recently departed Arrelious Benn.
Unit-wise, the athleticism is there, but they are not a well-rounded product. It's very hard to tell how much damage was done to them by the previous years' offensive misgivings, but I expect them to provide a solid challenge to the secondary on Saturday, at least from an athletic standpoint.
Defensive Front Seven
Vic Koenning has gone to a 4-3 hybrid defense, where the weakside defensive end functions as a stand-up linebacker at times. It's similar to Ohio State's "LEO" position, except they term it the "Bandit." Michael Buchanon and Nate Palmer split the duties of the "Bandit," with the 6''6, 225 lbs. Buchanon seeing a larger share of the snaps.
Defensive linemen Clay Nurse and Corey Liuget are both very talented players, with Liuget having been recruited heavily by Ohio State in high school. Sophomore and first time starter Glenn Foster rounds out the bunch.
Unproductive phenom Martez Wilson has finally settled in at the middle linebacker position, after having been bounced around between defensive end and outside linebacker in his first two seasons at Illinois. Wilson was widely expected to make an instant impact coming out of high school, but that has still not transpired.
The outside linebackers are senior Nate Bussey and junior Ian Thomas.
Secondary
Starting cornerbacks Tavon Wilson and Terry Hawthorne are playmakers. Easily two of the more impressive players on the Illini roster, Wilson and Hawthorne are both experienced from heavy playing time last season, although they were not starters. Hawthorne, in particular, has mad a name for himself with incredible hustle like this.
Safeties Travon Bellamy and Trulon Henry are o.k., but nothing jumped out at me when watching them play. It's worth noting that Henry was forced into duty when projected starter Supo Sanni tore his ACL in fall camp.
Special Teams
Senior starter Anthony Santello is legit. Illinois is 22nd in the nation in opponent punt returns, but Santello ranks second in the nation in gross yards, with a 48.9 average. The discrepancy between Santello's gross yardage and the net of Illinois' coverage team may reveal an opportunity for the Bucks to have some nice returns, though.
Illinoi is 111th in the country in punt returns and 94th in kickoff returns. Ohio State's coverage team needs to take care of business this week. There are no excuses.
Overview
Illinois has way too much talent on this team for them not to have made a bowl game the past two seasons. There are some serious athletes on the roster- some that Ohio State even recruited- and it's mind boggling to see them lose to MAC schools on a semi-regular basis.
Paul Petrino has brought direction to the offense, and he's wisely avoiding throwing too much with the young Scheelhaase. Illinois has combined a traditional downhill running game with some option looks out of the Pistol formation, and it's been a huge boon to their offensive output.
I am not impressed by Illinois' linebacker play. They may have dodged a bullet if Jake Stoneburner sits out this weekend, as he could have a big day working against the Illini's outside linebackers. The rest of the defense has definitely benefited from the new coaching staff; Illinois is not playing a drastically different scheme than the one they employed last season, but the difference in discipline and production is noticeable.
This Illinois team should be a tougher threat than the one that limped into Columbus last season, but the Buckeyes are humming right now. The Buzzsaw should strike down the Illini as the game goes along, even if they experience success in the early, emotional throes of the game.
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Very through analysis, great stuff.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.

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