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Around SBN: NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Miami (FL) Game Preview, Part I

Analysis of the Enemy:

What: Miami(FL) @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes

When: Saturday, September 11th; 3:40 P.M. EST

Where: Along the Olentangy

Television: ESPN, Brad Nessler and Todd Blackledge call the game.

Weather Forecast: Low- 60s, High- 80s. 40% chance of rain.

The Miami Hurricanes come to town in hopes of avenging the 2003 title game loss that marked the beginning of the dark period for the program. After that game, the Hurricanes decline began on a steady course; 11-2 in 2003, 9-3 in 2004, 9-3 in 2005, 7-6 in 2006, 5-7 in 2007, 7-6 in 2008. The Hurricanes went 9-4 last season, on the backs of the vaunted 2008 recruiting class (5th on Rivals, 3rd on Scout.) The now junior class came into its own, led by the media-friendly Jacory Harris. In head coach Randy Shannon's 4th year, the team is expected to make the jump from good to great, with many picking them to win the ACC and compete for a national championship.


Category Total Offense Total Defense Offensive F.E.I. Defensive F.E.I. Team F.E.I. Team S&P+ FPA
Value 399.9 Y/G 329.6 Y/G .314 -.384 .202 237.4 .512
Rank 45th 29th 18th 18th 10th 12th 42

 

Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple made an obvious impact on the previously underachieving Miami offense. 45th in offensive FEI in 2008, Whipple and Jacory Harris combined as agents of change for the Hurricanes in 2009. The defensive maturation of the 2008 recruiting class led to swift improvement in defensive performance as well, moving the 'Canes' from 65th to 18th in defensive FEI.

Quarterback(s)

Starts Completions Attempts Comp. % Yards Y/A Interception % Rushes Y/R
17 360 600 60% 4,547 7.57 5.1% 93 -1.27

With Jacory Harris taking over as the sole quarterback, the Miami offense was finally able to find a formula that works. In some cases, Harris's numbers aren't what you would expect from someone with so much national attention, but the overall effect his presence had on the Hurricanes' total output is undeniable. His completion percentage is solid, his yards per attempt is in-line with top passers, and he's the best Hurricane quarterback since Ken Dorsey. But the interception percentage is a little bit worrisome if you're a Miami fan.

While the yards/rush figure may seem awful, remember that sacks are counted against a quarterback's rushing figure. Jacory Harris certainly isn't a mobile quarterback, but his offensive line has not been great, and that colors his yards/rush figure significantly.

Star-divide

Offensive Line + Heavy Personnel

Category Sacks Allowed Sack Rate TFLs Allowed N.P.P.
Value 35 8.4% 75 12.5%
Rank 103 N/A 67 N/A

 

It's pretty incredible that Miami's offense was so effective last season. This chart indicates a team that can't protect their quarterback, and has a relatively large amount of negative plays. Junior Tyler Horn will be making his second start in his career on Saturday, after appearing in seven games last season in a reserve role. Left tackle Orlando Franklin is being shifted over from left guard, with former right guard Joel Figueroa being moved to right tackle. It's interesting to see the Miami line shifting guards to the outsides positions, as this goes against the grain of most coaches' philosophies. Usually the athleticism required to play at tackle translates to guard better than the athleticism at guard translates to tackle. In any case, Miami is going with the best combination that they feel they have, rounding out the line with sophomore Brandon Washington and junior Harland Gunn at guard.

When averaged, the Miami starting offensive lineman is 6''4 and 315 lbs. In terms of pure size, these guys more closely resemble the Miami lines of old than any of Shannon's previous teams.

For the first time in a long-time, the Hurricanes' vaunted tight end position appears dry. Both players in the two deep, senior Richard Gordon and JuCo transfer Chase Ford, are known for their blocking skills above receiving ability. Gordon only has four receptions in his career, and Ford has been on campus for less than a year. Despite this, Randy Shannon has described Gordon as a completely different player this fall camp, and freshman Asante Cleveland may provide some currently unknown ability.

Skill Positions

Players Receptions Yards Average TD(s)
Leonard Hankerson 45 801 17.80 6
Travis Benjamin 29 501 17.28 4
LaRon Byrd 33 460 13.94 1
Aldarius Johnson 16 276 17.25 1
Tommy Streeter 5 250 22.80 0


The athletes are obviously there. Every wide receiver on the Miami team has speed and athleticism, as expected. Senior Leonard Hankerson is the veteran of the group and the leading producer; Hankerson had Ohio State in his finalists way back when, when he committed to Miami out of St. Thomas Aquinas high school. The next four returning top producers are all from the heralded 2008 recruiting class. Aldarious Johnson in particular was destined for future stardom at the collegiate level, and has shown flashes of it, but a persistent groin injury has slowed his career a little bit.

Another member of that special 2008 class, Thearon Collier, transferred from Miami to USC after running into some internal issues. Collier would have been the fifth player on this chart, but he had shown incredible skills at the punt returner position.


Players Attempts Yards Y/A TD(s)
Graig Cooper 134 695 5.19 4
Damien Berry 93 616 6.62 8
Mike James 15 46 3.07 1
Lee Chambers 42 153 3.641 1


The Miami depth chart at running back is very deep, in numbers especially, and it's unclear how the rotation will be handled this early in the season. Senior Graig Cooper suffered a devastating injury in the Champs Sports Bowl, and only received his first carries last week in the third quarter, after Miami was leading FAMU by 42 points. His carries were already dwindling as the 2009 season went on, so it's doubtful that he will play a significant role against Ohio State.

The two names Ohio State fans want to be aware of are Damien Berry and Lamar Miller. Berry was recruited to Miami as a safety, but moved to the running back position after his freshman year. He was a stud running back at Glades Central High School, and he provided a real spark to the position after receiving more playing time in the latter half of last season. It's a good bet that he will receive the most carries of all Miami backs this week.

Lamar Miller is the young unknown. A redshirt freshman, Miller had 11 carries in his first game, running for 65 yards and a touchdown. He's probably the best athlete of all the Miami skill position players, so it will be important for the Buckeyes to be aware of his existence. Offensive coordinator Mark Whipple like to use multiple backs in multiple positions on the field, and with Miller being a threat to score every time he touches the ball, you can expect him to be involved early and often.

Moving Forward

I recognized that last week's preview was a little cumbersome in text, so, because of the importance of this game, we're splitting this week's up into four parts. Part I is the offensive player preview, Part II the defensive player preview, Part III the offensive scheme preview, and Part IV the defensive scheme preview. We want you to be more prepared for what you're going to see in this game than any other fan can be. Stay tuned, and go Bucks!

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Good preview. Nice idea to break up the Previews into segments.

Granted, I don't know what down it is..

by KenK on Sep 7, 2010 8:44 AM EDT reply actions  

cant wait for this game! lets go bucks!

In Tressel and his vest, I trust.

by dborst on Sep 7, 2010 9:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Great writeup, Tyler

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 7, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Fremeau Efficiency Index. Our Statistical Index has some words on it here. And Brian Fremeau explains it more thoroughly here. Basically, it tries to chart performance regardless of the win/loss column. His theory is that team performance can be viewed positively or negatively based on the play that took place on the field, no matter the final score. So Florida will be penalized heavily for struggling with Miami (OH) last weekend, even thought they pulled out the win.

by Tyler T. on Sep 7, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

As usual, great prep work! You make me look like a genius on gameday (I do ultimately source you, and warmly so).

"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic." - Crash

by TheBottleRockets on Sep 8, 2010 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Seeing those offensive line numbers (giving up 35 sacks) has me thinking great things for Heyward and company.

by el Kaiser on Sep 9, 2010 10:59 AM EDT reply actions  

They are supposedly reshuffling the line in preparation for this game. Against FAMU, they were excellent, but it’s FAMU. They’re worried about the same things we’re excited about.

by Tyler T. on Sep 9, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

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