Analysis of the Enemy: Arkansas Razorback Defense
Four of the six Ohio State players affected by the suspensions were offensive starters, and their play in this game will be of the utmost importance. Will they allow the situation to alter their performance, or will they use it as motivation? The answer will be paramount to Ohio State's success, or lack thereof, in the Sugar Bowl.
| Category | Total Defense | Scoring Defense | Yards Per Play (D) | Defensive S&P+ | Defensive FEI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 339.8 (per game) | 22.8 (per game) | 5.1 | 115.2 | -0.403 |
| Rank | 34th | 43rd | 35th | 26th | 13th |
The Razorbacks held twelve out of thirteen opponent to 31 points or less; Auburn, the exception, scored an incredible 65, skewing the statistics deceptively. If not for that lone meltdown, the Razoback defense would have ranked noticeably higher in all categories and would likely be mentioned as one of the better defenses in the SEC. The adjusted statistics compensate somewhat for the increased competition they face in the SEC, and do a better job revealing the difficult task that stands before the Ohio State offense.
Defensive coordinator Willy Robinson runs a 4-2-5 base scheme, although they do swap out the fifth defensive back for a linebacker when facing heavy personnel. This will be an opportunity for Jim Tressel and the Buckeye offensive coaches to manipulate the opponent a bit. If they feel that they have an advantage against the five defensive back sets, look for more multiple receiver formations. If not, tight ends Jake Stoneburner and Reid Fragel must have big games going up against the Arkansas linebackers.
In typical SEC fashion, the Hogs are athletic on the defensive line and have some real size in the front seven. Defensive ends Jake Bequette and Damario Alexander are each 6''5, 270, and neither specializes at stopping the run or pass, but are serviceable enough against both. It's the defensive tackles where Arkansas keeps the Hogs, with two 310 pound youngsters anchoring against the run. Freshman Byran Jones and sophomore DeQuinta Jones (no relation) are specimens, and they are a big a part of the defensive turnaround in Fayatteville as anyone. DeQuinta was committed to Rich Rodriguez at Michigan for a time, but ended up switching to Arkansas late in the 2009 recruiting season. He made a good decision.
In terms of matchups, I'm not worried about the defensive ends. I think that Ohio State can move them in the running game, and Mike Adams and J.B. Shugarts are more than capable of pass protecting against them. Arkansas does not have an effective speed rusher at defensive end, so the tackles will be able to focus on technique without having to worry about a quickness disadvantage. The trio of Boren-Brewster-Browning will have their hands full facing the defensive tackles, for girth reasons alone. But the interior of the line has been Ohio State's strength this season, and they should be up for the challenge.
Arkansas will need to blitz to pressure Ohio State's passing game. Terrelle Pryor has made strides throwing the ball this season, but he still is prone to errors under pressure. Middle linebacker Jerry Franklin is big, 6''1, 240, and along with weakside linebacker Anthony Leon, will be a part of the Razorback blitz packages. Out of the 4-2-5 set he runs, defensive coordinator Willy Robinson is able to bring the linebackers on blitzes while maintaining coverage. Ohio State's protection scheme versus these blitzes will be essential to a functioning passing game, especially on third downs.
The secondary is where Arkansas impresses me most, and where they have a chance to affect Ohio State's offense most. If cornerbacks Darius Winston and Isaac Madison can play man coverage against DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher, Arkansas can afford to bring more heat against the Buckeyes. But if Posey and Sanzenbacher can defeat the single coverages, Arkansas will be forced into zones and forms of combo coverage. And without a naturally dominant front four, that will cost them in pressure.
All in all, the Arkansas' defense is much better than many believe. Their offense gets press, and deservedly so, but they don't make a BCS game without the continued improvement of the defense. Petrino has done a great job recruiting (Darius Winston was recruited by the Buckeyes incidentally), and Willy Robinson is a solid defensive coordinator. They were awful against Auburn, but it's questionable how much that translates to this matchup. Terrelle Pryor may resemble Cam Newton, but the Auburn offense is very different than Ohio State's, and Auburn has more explosive talent around Newton than the Buckeyes have around Pryor.
Ohio State's offensive coaches need to take what they've learned from this season and apply it to the gameplan. Terrelle Pryor is the weapon on this offense, and the one player that all opposing defensive coordinators set their strategy around. We can expect much of the same from Arkansas.
If there's one player that can change the game for Ohio State, I think, perhaps surprisingly, that it's Jake Stoneburner. He is a matchup nightmare for the Razorbacks 4-2-5, and the one player that can augment Pryor in forcing the defenses' hand. Injury prevented Stoneburner from being utilized heavily this year, but that needs to change in this game. Splitting him out wide can be an easy way to attack man coverage, and he's good enough to be a legitimate threat at receiver.
I believe the best strategy for Ohio State is one of balance. This offense can get in trouble when it puts too much on Pryor, and it would be prudent for the coaches to be varied early. We must find a way to run the ball to reduce pressure on Pryor's passing, but how we run can be creative. If the I-formation is working, stick with it, but don't be surprised if the coaches use more option than we've seen. Against Penn State, the Veer play opened up the passing attack, and Arkansas struggled against it when facing Auburn. Ross will have more on the scheme matchups tomorrow, so stay tuned.
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