Week 6 Rankings

by talonk on Oct 10, 2011 2:03 PM EDT

Sorry for the delay in posting this ...

The top 25 or so teams have distanced themselves a bit from the pack. There will still be some decent jumps up and down as the middle 70 teams continue to fluctuate. By Week 9, the system should be stable enough where the huge jumps from week to week should be less noticeable.

Twenty of my Top40 are on the road next week, including 11 of the Top 15. Could be an interesting week. Most of the road games do not look too daunting, but they are road games.

A few notes: To offset the disparity of games played so far, any team with only 5 games gets a 0.5 boost (they haven’t won or lost that sixth game yet). Once the season gets to the seventh or eighth week, that bonus will be dropped as 75+% teams will be on the same footing. As of Week 6, exactly half of the BCS schools have had their bye. After Week 7, another 20 or so will have had their first byes. After Week 8, I will drop the 0.5 bonus as there will be enough to data to support equalizing the teams. However, if a team has had their second bye, I will continue to add the 0.5 for those teams only.

Definitions: Team … W/L (both self-explanatory) … +-/ - movement from last week … Score – If the number is positive (ie higher than the win total) this school has played a tough schedule. Usually, early in the season, less than 20 teams in the Top 60 have positive numbers. This is mainly due to weak OOC schedules, including FCS schools. If the number is negative, it is subtracted from the win total. So if it is a 6 win team that has a score of 5.3, then they have played a fairly weak schedule, and if their number is below 5.0, they have played a bad schedule so far.

As an FYI, Ohio St is currently #77 with a score of 2.510.

Onto the list …..

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
1	Alabama	6-0	6.320	0	LSU most likely is their only potential roadblock to an undefeated season. Roadie at Ole Miss should be easy.
2	LSU	6-0	5.870	+3	Road game @ Tennessee won’t be enough to make up the 0.5 difference .
3	Oklahoma	5-0	5.840	+3	Jayhawks won’t be a problem this week.
4	Michigan	6-0	5.830	-1	Passed first road test, Spartans should have a much more stout defense than Northwestern.
5	Oklahoma St	5-0	5.605	-+3	Depends on how the Longhorns respond to their Sooner thrashing.
6	Clemson	6-0	5.760	-4	Road game at Maryland this week. Will they be caught looking ahead to GA Tech game?
7	Illinois	6-0	5.420	+2	Excellent shot at putting the Buckeyes under .500.
8	Boise St	5-0	5.360	-1	First MWC game should be a cakewalk @Colorado St.
9	Georgia Tech	6-0	5.135	+1	Road game @ Virginia up next. Might slide a little down next week.
10	Texas	4-1	5.090	-6	Back to back with Sooners and Cowboys will not be fun.
11	Stanford	5-0	4.885	-1	Both Washington schools up next. @Cougars is first.
12	West Virginia	5-1	4.830	0	After bye week, interesting 2 road games @Syracuse and Rutgers up next.
13	South Carolina	5-1	4.770	+2	Next 3 are all on the road; Miss ST is up first.
14	Kansas St	5-0	4.760	+14	Road game @ Texas Tech should show if they are for real.
15	Arkansas	5-1	4.730	+17	Bye week before 2 roadies @ Ole Miss and Vandy.
16	Virginia Tech	5-1	4.640	+4	Surprising Demon Deacons are up next
16	Nebraska	5-1	4.640	+1	Buckeyes gave them a scare; Bye week this week before heading to the Golden Gophers.
18	Houston	6-0	4.620	+6	Bye week as well; Marshall next up.
19	North Carolina	5-1	4.610	-5	Slumping Hurricanes come calling this week.
20	Arizona St	5-1	4.580	+6	Can they pull off the upset in Duck country?
21	Auburn	4-2	4.520	-8	Reeling Gators come to town this week.
22	Notre Dame	4-2	4.510	+1	Bye week before the Trojans head East.
23	Penn St	5-1	4.490	-1	Boilermakers shouldn’t test them week.
24	Wisconsin	5-0	4.420	-6	Indiana game won’t help this ranking either.
25	South Florida	4-1	4.330	-9	Road game at Huskies shouldn’t prove too daunting.
26	Washington	4-1	4.310	-5	Slumping Buffaloes should be easy enough.
27	Georgia	4-2	4.280	+10	Last tune-up with Vandy before Florida game.
27	LA-Lafayette	5-1	4.280	+5	Inside track at the Sun Belt crown. Will be interesting to see if they stay in the Top 30 if they keep winning.
29	Rutgers	4-1	4.250	+1	Surprising Rutgers plays reeling Navy this week.
30	Baylor	4-1	4.240	+8	High scoring affair @Tex A&M this week.
31	USC	4-1	4.125	+4	Sneaky Bears are up before trip to South Bend..
32	BYU	4-2	4.040	+19	Road game @Beavers won’t help rankings at all.
32	Texas A&M	3-2	4.000	+7	Take the over in the Bears game this week.
34	Florida	4-2	3.930	-15	Great start could collapse to 4-4 with Auburn and Georgia up next.
34	Oregon	4-1	3.915	+6	Last tough game before Stanford game in a few weeks.
36	Southern Miss	5-1	3.860	+9	Shocker @Navy last week; Bye week before SMU visits.
37	UCLA	3-3	3.830	+10	Bye week before travelling to Tuscon for the reeling Wildcats.
38	SMU	4-1	3.820	-2	UCF is next before travelling to Southern Miss.
39	Western Mich	4-2	3.690	+15	Lone MAC school in Top40 as Ohio U stumbled last week.
40	Michigan St	4-1	3.660	-9	Wolverines come to town.

Dropped from Top 40 this week: Texas Tech, Iowa St, San Diego St, Ohio U

As of right now, the conferences are ranked as follows (1.25 is the highest, 0.75 is the worst): Big12 (1.25), ACC (1.15), BigEast (1.11), SEC (1.11), B1G (1.10), Pac12 (1.08), MWC (0.96), MAC (0.89), CUSA (0.89), SunBelt (0.80), WAC (0.75).

And now the bottom 20 ….

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
101	Arizona	1-5	1.300	-13	Lose to winless Ore St and you drop, a lot.
102	UNLV	1-4	1.290	-5	Pillow fight with Wyoming is next.
103	Buffalo	2-4	1.210	+11	Win last week almost got them out of the Bottom 20.
104	Indiana	1-5	1.200	+6	Slaughter at Camp Randall this weekend.
105	Central Michigan	2-4	1.180	-4	Eastern Mich is next game; potential chance for a W.
106	FAU	0-5	1.130	-14	Shocked they took this long to fall down here since they tend to stay here all year; Hilltoppers next.
107	Colorado	1-5	1.080	-1	Is it the offseason yet?
108	LA-Monroe	1-4	1.010	-3	Troy should smoke them this week.
109	Middle Tenn St	1-4	0.810	-6	Losing to the Hilltoppers is never a good thing.
110	Boston College	1-5	0.770	+7	Will they get a second W? I don’t think so.
110	Army	2-4	0.770	-16	Losing to Miami OH is not a good thing either.
112	Miami OH	1-4	0.750	+4	Beating Army gave them a very small boost.
113	Tulane	2-4	0.710	-5	Home game vs UTEP next.
114	Minnesota	1-5	0.660	-7	They won’t lose this week. Guaranteed.
115	Memphis	1-5	0.535	-3	I doubt they graduate from the Bottom 20 this year.
116	Western Kentucky	1-4	0.455	+3	Even a W couldn’t get them out of the bottom 5.
117	Akron	1-5	0.260	-4	Another team that won’t lose this week.
118	New Mexico	0-5	0.190	+2	Off to Nevada to get massacred.
119	Idaho	1-5	0.040	-4	New Mex St is next.
120	UAB	0-5	-.080	-2	Road game at Tulsa this week.

Graduated from Bottom 20: Colorado St, UConn, LA Tech, Oregon St.

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Comments

B1G rankings for Week 6:

1. Michigan, #4, 6-0, 5.830
2. Illinois, #7, 6-0, 5.420
3. Nebraska #16, 5-1, 4.640
4. Penn St #23, 5-1, 4.490
5. Wisconsin #24, 5-0, 4.420
6. Mich St #40, 4-1, 3.660
7. Iowa #51, 3-2, 3.170
8. Ohio St #76, 3-3, 2.510
9. Purdue #80, 3-2, 2.395
10. Northwestern #88, 2-3, 2.060
11. Indiana #104, 1-5, 1.200
12. Minnesota #114, 1-5, 0.660

by talonk on Oct 10, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions