Analyzing the Enemy: The Illinois Fighting Illini

Who could ever believe that Ron Zook would outlast Jim Tressel? Or that Illinois would be undefeated in October, while Ohio State toils away, struggling for bowl eligibility?

Zook, who only survived a 3-9 2009 season through sacrificing his offensive and defensive coordinators, has Illinois atop the Big Ten leaderboard, battling Penn State for control of the Leaders Division. They've dominated lesser competition and earned impressive victories against Northwestern and ranked Arizona State, scraping out each win by a field goal.

More than anyone, even fellow sophomore coordinator Paul Petrino, who has engineered an orange offensive revival, defensive coordinator VIc Koenning deserves the credit for Zook's continued employment.

Upon arrival last year, Koenning improved the Illinois defense immediately, transforming one of the worst squads in BCS play into a respectable group. In 2010, the Illinois ranked 38th in total defense and 48th in scoring, and the upwards trend has continued this season.

Koenning held an explosive Arizona State offense to 14 points, their lowest point total in two years. The following week, the Sun Devils scored 43 points and blew out USC. The Illini have allowed less than 300 yards and 18 points per game in 2011, and they now rank amongst the top twenty defenses in the country, ahead of traditional powers West Virginia, Florida, and Ohio State.

Against Terrelle Pryor last season, Koenning gambled a bit, allowing certain open running lanes for a general increase in pressure. When Pryor left injured, the Ohio State offense collapsed and Koenning's gamble paid off. Illinois held the Buckeye offense, led for a time by Joe Bauserman, to 24 points and 290 yards, far below its season averages, which probably does not augur well for Saturday.

A Little Defensive Forecasting

Knowing how Koenning schemed Ohio State last year,  a Buckeye team quarterbacked by a more dangerous running and passing threat, we can be fairly certain that Koenning will return to that same gameplan, hoping to improve upon its success against lesser competition.

Illinois spent the entire game "slanting" its defensive line to one side depending upon Ohio State's formation. When Ohio State was in the I-formation, Illinois would slant towards the tight end; when Ohio State went to the shotgun, Illinois would slant away from the tight end to combat zone-blocking, like in the picture to the right.

Slanting caused trouble with the passing game, too. Offensive tackles Mike Adams and J.B. Shugarts would react to the slanting defensive linemen prematurely, allowing a blitzing linebacker or safety to slip behind and pressure Pryor. Discipline will be key for both tackles, who should have learned from their struggles a year ago.

Predictable play-calling based on formation has been a large problem with this season's Ohio State offense. The predictability was negligible against Akron, Toledo, and Colorado, teams who were simply out-talented, but they've been noticeable against Miami, Michigan State, and Nebraska, and they will be noticeable this weekend if offensive coordinator Jim Bollman reverts to his tendencies.

Braxton Miller's health remains the biggest issue facing Ohio State, but preliminary signs point to his return. Bollman must call this game using Miller's tools to their fullest, avoiding predictable first-down power runs and setting Miller up for success. Koenning has already proven that he's a capable opponent willing to attack your tendencies, so it's imperative that Bollman does the same, or we will be left seeing more of this on Saturday:

Paul Petrino's Pro-Style Pistol

Nathan Scheelhaase endured the bumps required of first-time starting quarterbacks, and he's grown into one of the Big Ten's best in his second season. Running Paul Petrino's multiple offense, which ranks 3rd in the conference in total offense and 4th in scoring, Scheelhaase has demonstrated impressive decision-making and production, placing near the top in many crucial quarterback categories.

With a passing game skewed heavily towards one player, wide receiver A.J. Jenkins (46 rec., 815 yards, 61% of receiving yards), Scheelhaase has been forced to grind out tough rushing yards as a complement, and he's done so, almost matching leading rusher Troy Pollard's total yards.

Pollard, who brings an explosive 9.76 yards per carry figure, shares time with true freshman Donnovon Young and senior Jason Ford, forming an Illini rushing attack that ranks 4th in the conference but 13th nationally, a testament to both Illinois and the Big Ten's rushing prowess this season.

Like his brother at Arkansas, Paul Petrino's passing game is pro-style in concept, but Illinois's offense is quite unlike the Razorbacks. Paul Petrino has protected Scheelhaase's limited passing skills with shorter drop-back routes and simple reads, yet he's maintained many of the bigger play-action strikes off the running game. Here, we see a deep play-action throw off an outside zone run fake.

Outside Nevada, Illinois also runs the most dedicated Pistol offense in college football. While they sprinkle in snaps from under center and dabble in the shotgun, Petrino's base offense works from the Pistol formation, setting up Petrino's favorite play, the QB Lead, which we will see multiple times.

Score Predictions:

Chip: Illinois 24 - Ohio State 14

Ben: Illinois 27 - Ohio State 17

Tyler: Illinois 23 - Ohio State 13

Kyle: Ohio State 23 - Illinois 17