Week 8 Rankings

by talonk on Oct 24, 2011 11:06 AM EDT

Another week done, and some interesting movement, especially in the middle rankings. These movements also affected some of the schools at the top as well.

One huge shocker with the Sooners tanking and the fantastic Spartan win also contributed to some of the chaos. The Big12 still looks to be the top conference. Whether or not that translates to the bowl season remains to be seen.

The numbers are still a bit skewed as only 3 of the MAC schools have had a bye so far. Their numbers are depressed because of this. This should right itself over the next 2 weeks as 8 schools have byes the next two weeks.

Onto the list …..

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
1	Oklahoma St	7-0	7.570	0	Impressive Mizzou victory; RGIII is up next.
2	LSU	8-0	7.200	+1	Bye week, before the most anticipated regular season game since perhaps Michigan/OSU in 2006.
3	Alabama	8-0	6.860	+2	The loser of the LSU/Bama game should not drop much at all.
4	Boise St	7-0	6.840	+2	Air Force was a tougher game than expected. Bye before going on the road to the Running Rebels.
5	Oklahoma	6-1	6.530	-3	Shocking loss to Tech. No time to relax as surprising 7-0 Kansas St is next up.
6	Kansas St	7-0	6.400	+2	Smashed rival Jayhawks; Showdown with Sooners next.
7	Clemson	8-0	6.340	-3	Road game with the reeling Yellow Jackets this week.
8	Stanford	7-0	6.310	-1	Slaughtered the Huskies; road trip to the Trojans next.
9	Houston	7-0	6.260	+6	Surprising jump this week. Wonder how long it will last.
10	USC	6-1	6.120	+7	Domers got a beatdown; Stanford showdown next.
11	South Carolina	6-1	6.090	+1	Road trip to Rocky Top this week.
12	Virginia Tech	7-1	6.060	-1	Duke Blue Devils shouldn’t be too tough.
13	Texas A&M	5-2	5.720	+1	Mizzou comes to town before 2 nasty matchups.
14	Michigan	6-1	5.670	-5	Surprising Boilermakers are up next before 2 tough road games.
15	Michigan St	6-1	5.650	+8	Great game with the Badgers; big game with Huskers this week.
16	Oregon	6-1	5.540	+3	I don’t expect much of a problem from either Washington school.
17	Nebraska	6-1	5.330	-4	Here comes Sparty.
18	Arkansas	6-1	5.300	-2	Might be the only team left who could topple LSU, provided LSU gets past Bama.
19	Southern Miss	6-1	5.230	+14	Nice season so far; UTEP up next.
20	Texas Tech	5-2	5.170	+18	Huge win in Norman; letdown with the Cyclones on tap?.
21	Penn St	7-1	5.140	+4	Reeling Illini come to town.
22	Syracuse	5-2	5.090	+19	Shocker of a game over West VA; two roadies up next.
23	Georgia	5-2	5.080	+7	Cocktails anyone?
24	West Virginia	5-2	5.000	-6	Will Rutgers make it 2 losses in row?
25	Arizona St	5-2	4.990	+7	Lowly Buffaloes come to visit.
26	Wisconsin	6-1	4.920	-6	If they let the hail mary loss affect them, could Buckeyes upset them?
27	Washington	5-2	4.900	-6	Stanford leveled them. Arizona is next.
28	Notre Dame	4-3	4.870	-2	Navy won’t help their numbers this year.
29	Auburn	5-3	4.820	-5	Another surprising ranking after a beatdown.
30	Cincinnati	6-1	4.780	+10	Inside track to the Big East title.
31	SMU	5-2	4.700	-9	Tough loss; Tulsa is next.
32	Wake Forest	5-2	4.600	+13	Very nice comeback season so far.
33	Texas	4-2	4.500	-23	Most of their previous opponents lost this week, hurting their numbers.
34	Miami, FL	4-3	4.370	+10	Could win out if they keep playing this well.
35	Rutgers	5-2	4.270	-8	Will Mountaineers take out their frustrations on them?
36	North Carolina	5-3	4.240	+1	With all the movement in the middle this week, they didn’t move much.
37	Florida	4-3	4.200	+13	Will Tom Cruise make a visit this week?
38	Ohio St	4-3	4.090	+14	Not sure how they moved up this far during a bye.
39	Toledo	5-3	4.030	+17	Hey look … our first MAC school.
39	Tulsa	4-3	4.030	+10	Mustangs are next up.

Dropped from Top 40 this week: Illinois, Baylor GA Tech, UCLA, TCU, San Diego St, LA-Lafayette

As of right now, the conference multiplication factor as follows (1.25 is the highest, 0.75 is the worst): Big12 (1.25), SEC (1.15), ACC (1.13), Pac12 (1.10), B1G (1.08), BigEast (1.08), MWC (0.92), MAC (0.88), CUSA (0.88), SunBelt (0.79), WAC (0.75).

After all 120 teams are ranked, the averaging the teams in each conference, the conferences are ranked as follows:

Big12 (4.957), SEC (4.599), Pac12 (3.775), BigEast (3.768), ACC (3.754), B1G (3.705), MWC (2.715), CUSA (2.807), SunBelt (2.088), WAC (1.979), MAC (1.834)

And now the bottom 20 ….

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
101	Fresno St	3-5	1.380	-6	Bye week will help them move up a little I think.
102	Northern Illinois	4-4	1.310	-18	The first of six MAC schools down here.
103	Kent St	1-6	1.230	+10	Pillow fight with Bowling Green next.
104	Bowling Green	3-5	0.920	-4	Pillow fight with Kent St next.
105	Utah St	2-5	0.910	-9	Bye week next, then at Hawaii.
106	Army	2-5	0.870	-5	FCS Fordham should be win #3.
107	Boston College	1-6	0.860	0	Will they get a second win? Doubtful.
108	Middle Tenn St	2-4	0.720	+1	Surprising LA-Lafayette is next.
109	Central Michigan	2-6	0.660	+2	Pillow fight with Akron next.
109	Akron	1-6	0.660	-1	Pillow fight with Central Michigan next.
111	Colorado	1-7	0.610	-1	At least they got 2 points last week.
112	UNLV	1-5	0.560	-7	Colorado St is next loss.
113	UAB	1-6	0.280	+6	Pulled of their first W, congrats.
114	Idaho	1-6	0.270	+6	Hawaii comes to town this week.
115	Buffalo	2-6	0.180	0	Pillow fight with Miami OH next.
116	New Mexico	0-7	0.130	0	Contest is to see if they or FAU finishes winless.
117	Indiana	1-7	0.110	-5	Pillow fight with Northwestern next.
118	Memphis	2-6	-.040	0	A win finally, and on the road no less.
118	FAU	0-7	-.040	-4	See above.
120	Tulane	2-6	-.370	-3	Two road games won’t help them.

Graduated from Bottom 20: Miami-OH, Minnesota, Oregon St, Western Kentucky (first time ever since they became an FBS school, congrats!).

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Comments

B1G for Week 8

1. Michigan 6-1, 5.670; #14; -5
2. Mich St 6-1, 5.650; #15; +8
3. Nebraska 6-1, 5.330; #17; -4
4. Penn St 7-1, 5.140; #21 ; +4
5. Wisconsin 6-1, 4.920; #26; -6
6. Ohio St 4-3, 4.090; #38; +14
7. Illinois 6-2, 3.970; #43; -15
8. Iowa 5-2, 3.520; #53; -3
9. Purdue 4-3; 3.060; #68; +8
10. Minnesota 1-6; 1.520; #97; +6
11. N’western 2-5, 1.480; #98; 0
12. Indiana 1-7, 0.110; #117; -5

by talonk on Oct 24, 2011 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

Would you mind linking to your methodology / system explanation...

…for us newcomers?

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 24, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions

certainly … a brief summation of the methodology is here

by talonk on Oct 24, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Appreciate the work Talonk but i have 2 issues with this:

1) Tsun is presented with their birth name.

2) No positive poll should ever have tsun ranked #1

by biggy84 on Oct 25, 2011 1:50 AM EDT reply actions

Ha, sorry but I just use the outputs of the formula. Can they stick it out in the #1 spot? Very doubtful, If MSU upsets Nebraska, they will move ahead based on the schedule.

by talonk on Oct 28, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

There's no WAY the Big 12 has looked more impressive

And believe me, I hate the SEC. But until they’re knocked off their mantle, they’ll continue to look the part of teams that can run the table. Alabama and LSU have certainly been doing that so far.

Next Saturday’s match-up should be as watched as the Super Bowl….

by Dammit Cerrato... on Oct 29, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

5 consecutive titles yes. they have been dominant. Heck they probably will make it 6 straight this year. But unfortunately, this year the SEC is very similar to the B1G of the previous few years, with one slight difference. Instead of OSU ruling the conference, they have both Bama and LSU ruling the conference. The rest of the SEC is way down this year.

Yeah Georgia is 6-2, but they haven’t beaten anybody with more than 1 SEC victory until yesterday. And that is a reeling Florida team. Arkansas is 7-1 but should have lost to Ole Miss last week an Vandy this week. Look at the SEC standings, pretty horrific.

by talonk on Oct 30, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s not as “down” as you may think. I believe the conference is so competitive that they’re all good enough to beat one another. Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, they’re all dangerous teams, even if they sit a ways back from ‘Bama/LSU.
I think the same could be said of the B1G this year. It’s become more competitive, and everyone can beat everyone, unless you’re Indiana or Minnesota. I myself would put the B1G above the Big 12, but 2nd to the SEC. I actually think we’re better than the Pac-12 too, but that’s for another debate.

by Brutus89 on Oct 30, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually as home heavy teh B1G has been this year (very few road wins othr than against the dregs), the SEC is extremely top heavy this year.

6 teams with winning records in conference
South Carolina, 5-1, beat Georgia, Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee
Georgia 5-1 beat Ole Miss, Miss St, Tennessee, Vandy, and Florida
Alabama 5-0 beat Arkansas, Flordia, Vandy, Ole Miss, Tennesee
LSU 5-0 beat Miss St, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn
Auburn 4-2 beat Miss St, South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss
Arkansas 3-1 beat Auburn, Ole Miss, Vandy

I see a lot of repeat names in there. Most teams only have one good win in conference. To me that isnt a lot of parity, but a lot of beating up on the weaker programs. Hmmmm sounds like the B1G over the past few years.

by talonk on Oct 31, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but you can look at all major conferences and make that comparison. It’s usually the case though that we’re this far in the season, and we’ve crowned the B1G champion or it’s gone down to the wire amongst a few teams at the top that are vastly superior to those behind them. But as it stands, OSU is still mathematically alive to qualify and we have 3 losses (don’t worry, I’m not sipping the kool-aid) Penn State has surprised people, Illinois’ competitive in spite of their coach, Michigan hasn’t imploded like we all predicted again, Michigan State has remained competitive though they are the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde team, and of course Nebraska and Wisconsin are the current favorites going forward. Iowa’s fallen off a little and aren’t where we thought they’d be, but outside of Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana, I think this conference is more competitive week-in and week-out.

You’re right, there are dregs in the SEC, like every conference, but there are still good enough teams and good enough games where they are tested when the conference stretch of their schedule begins, I think that’s been the case with the B1G this season, and even though I hope our beloved young Buckeyes get a little more experience under their belt, I hope the conference remains as fun as it has this season.

What I felt Saturday night was a feeling I haven’t felt in a long time. We can’t take conference victories for granted any more. I just hope that remains the case. The difference between the B1G of past and the SEC of past is that, while yes, the perennial power houses are always in the picture, the actual difference in conference turnover is who has won their conference.
The last 5 years, it’s been Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State, maybe throw in an Iowa or Penn State in there in terms of sharing the crown.
In regards the SEC it’s been Florida, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, with Arkansas and Georgia usually coming close. Some of that you could say is the institution of a conference championship by one and none, until now, by the other. You could also say how Nebraska’s coming over has helped. That’s my point I guess.

by Brutus89 on Oct 31, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions