Week 9 Rankings

by talonk on Oct 31, 2011 3:10 PM EDT

A bit of a shakeup at the top with Clemson and Kansas St tumbling. The top 6 have distanced themselves a bit from the pack.

This year is a bit strange with some non-traditional teams showing up in the 30s. This week we have 7 Big 12 schools, seven B1G, six SEC, five Pac 12, four ACC, four CUSA, two Big East, two MWC, Notre Dame, one Sun Belt, one MAC and no WAC in the Top 40.

Based on strength of schedule, only 37 of the 120 teams have positive numbers so far. Been a down year on the whole for CFB this year.

Onto the list …..

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
1	Oklahoma St	8-0	8.550	0	Another impressive win. Unless they lose, they will be tough to knock out of this top spot.
2	LSU	8-0	8.050	0	They have a slight edge over Bama right now; finishing schedule is about even with Bama too.
3	Alabama	8-0	7.800	0	Loser of this week’s Game of the Century probably will stay in the Top 5.
4	Oklahoma	7-1	7.710	+1	Excellent thrashing of the Wildcats. Even if they beat Okie St, will be tough to pass them based on the point difference.
5	Stanford	8-0	7.660	+3	A solid road win against a top team bumps them up. Ore St won’t help their numbers this week, but Oregon and ND would get them to #3.
6	Boise St	7-0	7.295	-2	Bye week caused a slight slide, but games against UNLV and New Mexico will drop them even further.
7	Michigan	7-1	6.970	+7	Iowa doesn’t look as tough as they did a week ago. Even Illinois might not be a tough road game either.
8	Virginia Tech	8-1	6.950	+4	An extra week to prep for the Yellow Jackets should help.
9	Nebraska	7-1	6.930	+8	Superb W over Sparty. Northwestern is next.
9	Houston	8-0	6.930	0	This will be their peak as UAB and Tulane will drop them to lower teens at least.
11	South Carolina	7-1	6.855	0	Last road game at Arkansas will most likely determine SEC East title. Only quality win is Georgia so far.
12	Clemson	8-1	6.785	-5	It took longer than usual, but Clemson finally had their oops week. Bye this week.
13	Kansas St	7-1	6.660	-7	Last chance at making a mark at the Cowboys.
14	Penn St	8-1	6.390	+7	Nastiest final 3 games of all the top teams. Need 2 wins to secure a B1G CG berth.
15	USC	6-2	6.380	-5	Great effort vs Stanford. Lowly Buffaloes will drop them a few spots next week.
16	Oregon	7-1	6.340	0	Next 3 games will finally push them up in the rankings provided they win.
17	Michigan St	6-2	6.070	-3	Easiest finishing slate, but that will also cause a slight drop in rankings too.
18	Southern Miss	7-1	6.070	+1	Another team that has probably maxed out with both UAB and Memphis in last 2 weeks.
19	Arkansas	7-1	5.950	-1	Two squeakers last 2 weeks does not bode well for finishing stretch.
20	Georgia	6-2	5.900	+3	Sadly, the Gators are their only bona fide win.
21	Washington	6-2	5.770	+6	I expect an 8-4 final record.
22	Texas	5-2	5.600	+11	A nice boost in the numbers this week even if it was just Kansas.
22	West Virginia	6-2	5.600	+2	Very mediocre game vs Rutgers. Was the weather to blame?
24	Texas A&M	5-3	5.590	-11	Another loss is most likely on tap with Sooners next.
25	Notre Dame	5-3	5.490	+3	Preseason their schedule looked pretty decent, but it hasn’t shaken out that way. Am expecting 8-4.
26	Auburn	6-3	5.440	+3	Georgia game will determine if they get to 8 wins.
27	North Carolina	6-3	5.385	+9	Nice win vs Wake Forest. Rival NC St shouldn’t be a problem.
28	Ohio St	5-3	5.380	+10	Indiana game will drop them a few spots this week.
29	Arizona St	6-2	5.320	-4	Probably will finish 10-2; finishing schedule is easier than most.
30	Tulsa	5-3	5.300	+9	Am surprised at seeing a 3rd CUSA school in Top 40
31	Toledo	5-3	5.220	+8	If they win out, they might break the Top 30.
32	Wisconsin	6-2	5.130	-6	Second loss is a killer to their rankings.
33	GA Tech	7-2	5.060	+14	Nice comeback after 2 losses. Huge game vs VA Tech in 2 weeks.
34	Arkansas St	6-2	5.040	+7	Again, they have peaked, 3 of final 4 games are against bottom 25 teams.
35	Texas Tech	5-3	4.980	-15	Depressing follow-up to Sooner win. Tough two games with Texas and Okla St next.
36	SMU	5-3	4.920	-5	Will be tough to stay in Top 40, but to CUSA’s credit they do have 4 Top 40 teams.
37	Syracuse	5-3	4.850	-15	UConn won’t help their numbers this week.
38	TCU	6-2	4.820	+6	Other than Boise St, I don’t see another loss.
39	Illinois	6-3	4.790	+4	Will week off stop their slide> Doubtful, Michigan is next.
40	Missouri	4-4	4.700	+12	Nice road win. Baylor is next road game.

Dropped from Top 40 this week: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Miami FL, Rutgers, Florida

As of right now, the conference multiplication factor as follows (1.25 is the highest, 0.75 is the worst): Big12 (1.25), SEC (1.15), ACC (1.15), Pac12 (1.10), B1G (1.09), BigEast (1.08), MWC (0.94), CUSA (0.90), MAC (0.88), SunBelt (0.79), WAC (0.75).

After all 120 teams are ranked, the averaging the teams in each conference, the conferences are ranked as follows:

Big12 (5.527), SEC (5.133), ACC (4.409), B1G (4.397), Pac12 (4.262), BigEast (3.934), CUSA (3.224), MWC (3.096), SunBelt (2.603), MAC (2.600), WAC (2.519)

And now the bottom 20 ….

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
101	UConn	3-5	1.890	-13	Bad OOC drops them this far.
102	Boston College	2-6	1.650	+5	Almost escaped the Bottom 20 with a W.
103	Oregon St	2-6	1.550	-7	Stanford loss will still give them a boost next week.
104	LA-Monroe	2-6	1.460	-5	Big rivalry game with Lafayette this week.
105	Army	3-5	1.420	+1	Air Force is next.
106	UNLV	2-5	1.400	+6	Boise St will crush them.
107	Central Michigan	3-6	1.220	+2	Pillow fight with Kent St next.
108	Middle Tenn St	2-5	1.155	0	Volunteers are next up.
109	Colorado St	3-5	1.120	-15	They can’t lose this week.
110	Utah St	2-5	1.110	-5	Road trip to the islands up next.
111	Colorado	1-8	0.900	0	Trojans may take out their frustrations on them.
112	UAB	1-7	0.440	+1	Houston may score more than they did against Rice.
113	Akron	1-7	0.420	-3	They will have chances to get another W the next few weeks.
114	Idaho	1-7	0.130	0	Spartans are up next.
115	FAU	0-7	0.080	+4	Arkansas St is probable next loss.
116	New Mexico	0-8	-.040	0	Aztecs will keep them winless.
117	Buffalo	2-7	-.160	-2	Bye week before surprising Eastern Michigan.
118	Indiana	1-8	-.170	-1	Will revamped Buckeyes slaughter them too?
118	Memphis	2-7	-.320	-1	Bye week before pillow fight with UAB.
120	Tulane	2-7	-.730	0	Road trip to SMU on deck.

Graduated from Bottom 20: Fresno St, Northern Illinois, Kent St, Bowling Green

FanPosts must be substantive. If you are merely referencing an article, video, or other form of content, please post a FanShot instead. If you are expanding or starting a discussion, feel free to continue with your FanPost.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

B1G for Week 9

1. Michigan 7-1, 6.970; #7; +7
2. Nebraska 7-1, 6.930; #9; +8
3. Penn St 8-1, 6.390; #14 ; +7
4. Mich St 6-2, 6.070; #17; -2
5. Ohio St 5-3, 5.380; #28; +10
6. Wisconsin 6-2, 5.130; #32; -6
7. Illinois 6-3, 4.790; #39; +4
8. Iowa 5-3, 3.410; #69 -16
8. Purdue 4-4; 3.410; #69; -1
10. Minnesota 2-6; 2.460; #87; +10
11. N’western 3-5, 1.990; #98; 0
12. Indiana 1-8, -0.170; #118; -1

by talonk on Oct 31, 2011 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

This LSU/'Bama game may sway you, depending on how it plays out

I definitely think Ok State is a great team, and I’ll be watching that Dec 3 game, but the manner in which they’ve won has been so finesse, I’m just not sure they’ll be able to close out the season unscathed. I think we’ll see a Boise/Ok State Fiesta Bowl, which would be some good clean fun.
We were talking about this earlier, the B1G is such a cluster F of inconsistency/competitiveness, it’s hard to pick out a clear cut winner, I’d hate to say it, but you may be right in your Michigan placement.

I’m praying Stanford keeps rolling and gets the nod at 2 overall by seasons end. If anyone is to knock off an SEC winner, I have them as my best bet. Though Stanford’s not the Texas’ or USC’s of the world, those involved would drool at the idea of showcasing Luck in the National Championship, so who knows.

Personally, I’m still not sold on Clemson, Virginia Tech, or any ACC squad for that matter.

by Brutus89 on Oct 31, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

Just wanted to point out, that if I was doing an official ballot, it would look slightly different. These rankings are strictly done as number crunching. Okla St is getting credit for playing a slightly tougher schedule to date. Also, I wouldn’t have Wisconsin as low as they are here, but theri numbers are really hurt by their horrific OOC schedule.

The numbers are really built for judging after a full schedule has been played out. But at this point, we can see a close approximation of where most teams may line up.

I agree that Stanford has the best shot at knocking off an SEC school. But they have to beat Oregon first and pray that Oklahoma knocks off the Cowboys in the finale. I don’t see Stanford leapfrogging Ok St in the polls, computers or these rankings unless Ok St loses.

by talonk on Oct 31, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh I understand, I’m giving my opinion on where I think teams will ultimately wind up.

by Brutus89 on Oct 31, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Just as an FYI, the SEC will close the gap somewhat on the Big12 the next few weeks as the majority of the SEC is finally playing their last OOC game (what the the B1G does during MACrifice week).

this week: Goergia vs New Mex St, Tennessee vs Middle Tennessee St and Miss St vs FCS UT-Martin
next week: LSU vs Western Kentucky and Ole Miss vs LA Tech
following week: South Carolina vs FCS Citadel, Florida vs FCS Furman, Auburn vs FCS Samford and Alabama vs FCS GA Southern.

They should sweep those games and boost their OOC record.

If they sweep the final four ACC games (or even 3 of the 4), they will end up very close to the 1.25 number the Big12 is getting right now. That will help Bama/LSU creep up closer to Okla St.

Naturally, the media will ignore this late season “bye” week as not a big deal.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

I hate that non-conference games against turds are scheduled this late in the season, in any big conference of contenders… Waters down the product as we get closer and closer to bowl season.

by Brutus89 on Nov 1, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

As much as I hate it, it actually is a very smart way to prep for those late season rivalry games and/or bowls. It essentially is an extra bye week late in the season to get some players healthy.

I wish the B1G actually emplyed some of this, but I doubt the traditions would ever be broken up that way.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

We have more in the middle of the season, but not this far in. I’m thinking Kent St in ‘07 is prolly the latest you’re going to get (Ohio State wise). The economics of it makes perfect sense, but from a viewing standpoint, yeah, it sucks.

by Brutus89 on Nov 1, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions