Can Ohio State still make it to the Big 10 Championship?
by Brutus89 on Nov 1, 2011 4:45 PM EDT
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PrintAs it stands right now, definitely.
After Week 9, the Leaders division looks like this:
Penn State - 8-1 (5-0)
Wisconsin - 6-2 (2-2)
Ohio State - 5-3 (2-2)
Purdue - 4-4 (2-2)
Illinois - 6-3 (2-3)
Indiana - 1-8 (0-5)
If it comes down to a tie breaker between us and Wisconsin, we get the nod. The team to actually keep an eye on are the "under-the-radar" Nittany Lions. Though they currently lead the division, no one is talking about their dominant play (or lack there of). Personally, I see them as nothing more than a young team that's gotten the breaks, which, well sounds kind of like us at the moment! But nonetheless, the November stretch for us looks favorable when comparing schedules.
Ohio State finishes with home games against Indiana and Penn State, and road games at Purdue and in Ann Arbor. Michigan, I think we all agree, will be our toughest test in that stretch.
Penn State doesn't have it so easy. They have to face the Cornhuskers at home, followed by road trips to Columbus and Madison. So while we don't exactly control our own destiny, winning right now is the best strategy.
Here's how it needs to play out for us to get to the big dance:
- Ohio State wins out, including a win over Penn State, giving us a potential tie breaker
- Penn State drops one of their other games (Nebraska, Wisconsin)
That would tie up conference records, giving us the keys to Indy.
This season has been very humbling. We've realized that we aren't bullet proof, and we've realized that we're no longer alone in our conference. But with that comes optimism, we don't know who will be roaming the sidelines next year for us, but we do recognize the influx of young talent at the skill positions that we will have going forward. I think the future looks bright, yet again.
Could that future start this year? I think it already has, go Bucks!
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I believe it. If Fickell spends the next two weeks preparing for Penn State and Michigan, as he should given the opponents, the Buckeyes will have a benefit that Penn State and Michigan will not. Both of them play tough competition in the weeks leading up to Ohio State, and they will need all of their practice time for those opponents.
There’s no need to prepare specifically for an awful Indiana team and a slightly less awful Purdue team. A significant part of being head coach is effective time management. Fickell should have learned that from Jim Tressel, and it could really pay off in the coming weeks.
I don’t like the idea of overlooking anyone, a loss is still an option with Indiana or Purdue. Getting by on talent alone we’ve seen has not been a recipe for success this year, as I would argue that we were not well prepared for Miami.
Purdue in ‘09 definitely comes to mind when I think of overlooking an opponent. I hope these guys are fired up to go out and play these next two games and don’t show up flat because they think they’re big time after that win last week.
Think about it like this. The only way this season can be salvaged is if the final four games are won. So what’s the surest path to four victories? Spending more time on the tougher opponents than the lesser ones.
Here are my odds predictions for winning each remaining game:
Indiana- 90%
Purdue- 80%
Penn State- 55%
Michigan- 55%
If spending a few practice periods this week and next preparing for Penn State’s unique 4-3 Over, Cover 3 defense lowers Ohio State’s chances of winning against Indiana but raises its chances against Penn State, we’ve then increased our odds in our tougher game. We’re accepting increased risk against Indiana, but the risk is really less risky because it comes against a weaker opponent. So, if we accept increased risk against Indiana and Purdue, and gain odds against Penn State and Michigan, we’re really improving our chances of winning all four games and the two that matter most.
Indiana- 75%
Purdue- 70%
Penn State- 60%
Michigan- 60%
This idea of prioritizing opponents is why Jim Tressel had so much success against Michigan. He would spend one period each practice— called the “Maize and Blue Period”— that would simulate Michigan’s offensive and defensive schemes. By the time The Game came around, we were more familiar with Michigan than if we had only prepared that preceding week.
I definitely like us over Penn State straight up. I think they’re overrated and haven’t reached the tough stretch of their schedule until now. If you were to ask for my predictions of their final 3 games, I’d tell you they lose all 3.
Obviously, you don’t want to overlook Penn State any year, but I’m almost certain we can beat them without the extra time put into watching film on those guys.
The team I’m worried about is Michigan, and I think this might finally be their year to get back on track in this rivalry, so maybe more there than any other.
I just want the guys to be thinking Indiana right now. They’re young and raw, and I can’t see them looking ahead as a remedy for success. Now if this was a veteran squad led by upperclassmen, I’d put more stock into that, but I feel like this team and their identity is still being molded. They’re too young to be thinking they’re just going to go out there and win this one so they’re one game closer to Penn State. We as fans think that, but I pray it’s not preached in the locker room.
If we were to assume that those percentages are correct, the first scenario has our chances of winning out at 21.78% and the second scenario has our chances down to 18.9%. So if winning out is our ultimate goal, we shouldn’t “cherrypick” in a sense the final two games. If beating Michigan and/or Penn St. is our ultimate goal, we should. Again, this is all if we assume those percentages. If everyone makes their own odds predictions for themselves, they too can decide if its worth it to spend more time preparing for Penn St./Michigan.
Two things wrong with this statement, one of which is my fault for not clarifying.
I did not use a 1:1 percentage ratio when converting from Indiana/Purdue to Penn State/Michigan. If I did, the end percentage would have been the same in each case. Because the latter two teams are much better than the first two, though, we should expect a lesser percentage increase when applying the increased practice time to the projected result (i.e. one practice period spent preparing for Indiana increases Ohio State’s victory odds 5% while the same period applied to Penn State only increases the odds by 2.5%).
Two, and this is the real issue, the expected value in this situation fails to account for selective risks and their potential benefits. If we were to only shift expected outcomes, and redistribute the risk, expected value would still treat the end probability as the same, because we’re treating the value of each game as one.
A situation where X has 75% chance of succeeding and Y has 50% would result in the same expected value if the odds were redistributed so that X now only has a 60% of succeeding and Y has a 65% chance. Yet the odds of Y’s success, which were exactly even before, have now been shifted to give a certain clear advantage to Y’s success. In a theoretical sense, the difference is negligible. For a football coach shifting practice time and attempting to distribute risk, however, the difference matters.
So, although the net expected value may give Ohio State a lesser chance of winning after shifting practice time (in my arbitrary examples, of course), accepting selective risk would actually pay off for Ohio State given the vast talent disparity between opponents. It’s my contention that increased victory chances against Penn State and Michigan, if even slight, are worth increased risk against Indiana and Purdue.
I just meant to throw out there that if everyone takes their own personal odds, they could do the same thing and see what it makes our ultimate chance of winning out by multiplying the percentages together.
I’m just saying that your percentages don’t match up with the coaching strategy you’re promoting, if your ultimate goal is to win out and make it to Indy. If you think that accepting more risk against Indiana/Purdue isn’t very harmful, given the talent disparity (a point with which I would agree) then your percentages should reflect that and not fall so greatly in the second scenario, where you instead said they were significantly more likely to upset Ohio St.
Also altering the percentages with a 1:1 ratio would not make the percentages exactly the same. 50% * 100% (50%) is not the same as 75% * 75% (56%).
If you think that accepting more risk against Indiana/Purdue isn’t very harmful, given the talent disparity (a point with which I would agree) then your percentages should reflect that and not fall so greatly in the second scenario, where you instead said they were significantly more likely to upset Ohio St.
No, you’re definitely right here. My odds were arbitrary and largely meant to illustrate the theoretical value in accepting increased risk in less threatening games for a slight payoff in more threatening games.
I would say I agree that we should prepare for the later games now and the percentage drop in the Indiana/Purdue games would be LESS than the percentage increase in the later, tougher games for which extra preparation is so valuable. This would increase the overall probability of winning out, which we both believe it will.
You're forgetting something
Look, I think we can win out. If we beat Indiana & Purdue, it sets up a HUGE game at the Shoe against Penn State, especially if Penn State loses next week at Kyle Field. That would probably become an 8 PM kickoff, and we’d have a huge edge with the home crowd behind the team.
However, we’ve got a little problem: the NCAA could still slap us with a bowl ban before the Michigan game, which would make us ineligible for a trip to Indianapolis. So we’re playing this season with a realistic possibility that the NCAA could just knock us down despite a phenomenal in-season turnaround. If we don’t get slapped with a bowl ban, we have a realistic chance of winning the division, going to Indy, and even Pasadena. But I’ve got a bad feeling about what we could be facing.
Oh believe me, I haven't forgotten that
That’s still that little voice in the back of my head that I try to ignore.
I can’t imagine the NCAA making it much worse than it has been. With the black eye the program got from having to force out one of their most heralded coaches, the only scenario I think they make it worse is because we know how much the NCAA loves to puff up their chest and show everyone what they’re made of.
Still waiting to hear more on that Miami program that’s responsible for, in my mind at least, the biggest scandal in the history of college football… Where did that story go?
They need to make an example out of somebody
There are so many scandals right now regarding NCAA programs aside from us: Southern Cal, Auburn, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, LSU, and Miami (plus a few others). Our punishment is supposed to be coming rather soon. Wouldn’t it make sense for them to go out of their way to make an example of us to send a message to all of the other programs out there to get their acts together? That’s what I’m afraid of.
I would argue that they've already sent that message
Granted, what USC did was potentially worse (depends who you ask) than what we did, but I think that was an example of them coming down hard on a program to show their strength. Maybe you’re right, and they eliminate our chances of a postseason berth, but nonetheless, I don’t think they need to. I feel like what Ohio State did doesn’t hold a candle next to what the Miami’s, USC’s, or SEC schools are responsible for.
You could make the argument that I’m jaded, but if you told me to rank offenses as a straight up person, withholding information takes a back seat to buying houses for players and their family, or promoting a booster that was giving hundred dollar hand shakes and buying hookers for players. Perhaps I’m giving the NCAA too much credit by thinking they’ll recognize that. Our head football coach of a decade had to re-sign, I feel like that’s embarrassing enough, but that’s just me.
They may think it’s sending a message, but does it really? Did the Pony Express at SMU really stop what’s taking place today? I don’t think it’s as much their trying to send a message as much as it is them acting on their, for lack of a better term, “bully mentality.”
How in the hell is Kyle Field involved in any way, shape or form?
If Penn State loses at Kyle Field in 2 weeks, something very sinister will be afoot.
Also, I don’t think Big Ten teams can have 8 p.m. kickoffs in the month of November.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
Here's another question to pose on top of this
Who would you rather get another crack at in the big game? Michigan State or Nebraska?
There’s the chance we play Michigan again, depending on what Michigan State does. But I think if we beat Michigan, one of those other two could be in position to potentially vault the Wolverines.
Personally, I want a piece of both of them. Though that Nebraska ending was rough, I feel like our defense got robbed against MSU. I’d love a little revenge on both of ’em.
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