Analyzing the Enemy: Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

Despite Penn State's tumultuous two weeks, they remain firmly entrenched in the Big Ten championship race. Should the Nittany Lions win out, and eliminate Ohio State and Wisconsin's lingering hopes, they will represent the Leaders Division in the inaugural title game.

Following Ohio State's prolonged offseason, and the forced resignation of former head coach Jim Tressel, I believed there could not be a more painful way for a coaching icon to leave his beloved institution. I was wrong. When the Penn State Board of Trustees fired Joe Paterno last Wednesday, they simultaneously ripped the soul out of Nittany Lion football. The fallout was tremendous. Protests. Riots. Vigils. And then the first football game in 46 years without Joe Paterno.

Acting head coach Tom Bradley faced an incredible challenge maintaining the NIttany Lions' composure. Given the circumstances, a few positives could be taken away from Saturday's game. The team did not crumble after Paterno's exit, only losing narrowly to Nebraska following a failed comeback attempt. Quarterbacks coach Jay Paterno has settled on senior Matt McGloin as the full-time starter after dabbling with a platoon system. Sophomore Robert Bolden saw his final snaps against Illinois two weekends ago, completing zero passes and losing a costly fumble.

McGloin has not played well since grabbing the starting job, but he has provided some stability. His line against Nebraska--16/34, 193 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs--summarizes his role as a game-manager. As long as he does not sabotage Penn State's chances through turnovers and other mistakes, McGloin can do just enough to be effective. But when he's pressing, as he did against Ohio State last season, he can be infuriating.

Last weekend's home contest gave the Penn State community an opportunity to rally around its team. Now the stakes, and difficulties, are raised. How the Nittany Lions respond to a surely raucous road environment, and possibly ill-intentioned fans, cannot be predicted. Normally a boisterous atmosphere, Ohio Stadium will be seething with righteous, or self-righteous, anger.

We Thought We Had It Bad

And we do. Ohio State possesses the 8th-ranked scoring offense and the 11th-ranked total offense in the Big Ten. We have perhaps the best offensive line in the conference yet cannot do anything but run the ball, and sometimes not even that. Offensive coordinator Jim Bollman has been demonized by a growing contingent of Ohio State fans who view his scheme as prehistoric. We have as much hope that our defense or special teams will score as the offense.

We aren't the only talented program suffering from disappointing performances, however. Penn State can match our offensive foibles, and even exceed the ineptitude in certain cases.

While the Nittany Lions have gained more yards at a more efficient clip than the Buckeyes, they haven't scored more points. Both offenses have rough passing games--the Buckeyes' bordering non-existent--- and both have moved the ball primarily on the ground. Penn State tailback Silas Redd, as we will see shortly, is one of the best backs in the country. Redd's 204 attempts for 1,059 yards, or 5.04 yards per carry, places him 19th nationally among tailbacks.

Ohio State's ultraconservative passing game has had one side benefit, at least---an extremely low turnover rate. Penn State's turnover rate, while not extreme, has not aided their struggling offense. McGloin and Bolden have combined for 7 interceptions, or one every 43 attempts, good for 31st nationally. They've dropped 25 fumbles, third-most in the country, and lost 10 of them, a fortunate recovery rate given the random nature of fumble recoveries.

Steady As She Goes

It's stunning to think that this may be the last time we see the standard Joe Paterno offense. From Todd Blackledge, to Kerry Collins, to Daryll Clark, Penn State has held certain plays sacrosanct through the ages-- rushes, screens, and play-action.

The standard Penn State drive begins with a hand-off to a talented tailback. This season's recipient is Silas Redd, a sophomore with star written all over him.

Redd has received 52% of Penn State's carries, but against Nebraska he split time evenly with recently reinstated Stephfon Green. Green is a straight speedsters--some reports even having him run a 4.3 40-yard dash-- but Redd provides the balance. He's quick, powerful, and tenacious, a more talented Jordan Hall.

Penn State, more than any other team I can remember, runs screens as a core play. Below, fullback Joe Suhey catches a screen pass following play-action. It works due to the run threat established by Redd.

Like all coherent offenses, Penn State's contains a vertical threat off their base run plays.

Tom Bradley's Bunch, Scrappy As Always

Much has been written about Penn State's 4-3 Over, Cover 3 defense, so I will quote Chris Brown, who has covered it better than I can.

But once you peel back the layers you see the biggest holdover of them all for Penn State's defense: They are maybe the last, great "Cover 3" team -- i.e. their base coverage is a three-deep, four under zone defense. This is surprising because it eschews the fad coverage -- quarters, "Tampa Two," and even Cover 1 "robber," though they can use those if they like -- but also because Cover 3 is often seen as such a simple and, well, old coverage.

This season, the Nittany Lion defense has been one of the best in the country, keeping the team afloat when the offense has struggled. Besides surrendering 27 points to Alabama, one of the best offenses in the country, and 24 points to Northwestern, Penn State has held every other opponent below 20 points.

The 4-3 Over, Cover 3 is a particularly good defense against heavy rushing offenses like Ohio State's. They are able to match each Buckeye man-for-man in the box, and gain a quick numbers advantage should they recognize the rush post-snap.

Young Braxton Miller and the tailback group behind him may have trouble finding any space without the passing game first doing something positive, even if it's a simple slant route.

Score Predictions

Tyler: Ohio State 20 Penn State 13

I believe Penn State is better, but I cannot see them traveling into the real lion's den and escaping unscathed. Right or not, Ohio Stadium, and the surrounding countryside, will be especially hostile to Penn State's presence.

Chip: Penn State 10 Ohio State 7
It pains me to pick against Ohio State, but Penn State's defense can, and probably will, shut down Ohio State's predictable rushing offense and elementary passing game.

Ben: Ohio State 14 Penn State 10