Analyzing the Enemy: Michigan Wolverines and One Last Dance

It's been a year of opposites for Michigan and Ohio State. In Brady Hoke's first season as the Wolverines head coach, he's flipped their fortunes around from the Rich Rodriguez-era. Michigan stands at 9-3, already guaranteed their best record since 2007. Jim Tressel, the bane of Michigan's existence, was forcibly retired following a messy NCAA scandal. Luke Fickell, his earnest replacement, struggled to maintain the past decade's success and has endured heated criticism for his coaching decisions.

Given the struggles of the 2011 season, the disappointments and the setbacks, it would be tempting for Ohio State fans to write off this year's version as a loss, an inevitable bump in the road between coaching staffs. That would be a mistake.

The difference between Ohio State and Michigan is not a vast talent gap. Ohio State, in fact, has more talent according to the Rivals rankings. The Buckeyes have recruited the top class in the Big Ten three out of the last four years, including the important 2008 and 2009 groups who are now veteran players. Players like DeVier Posey, Mike Adams, Mike Brewster, and Johnny Simon---future NFL Draft picks---give Ohio State enough talent to compete against anyone.

No, it's quite clear that the void Jim Tressel left behind more adversely affected Ohio State's season than anyone could have predicted. His staff, his friends, his players were left to salvage a season under difficult circumstances, and they tried their best. Notwithstanding a few quarters where it had appeared they'd given up, the 2011 Buckeyes never actually quit on their interim coach. And we should not quit on them.

The Vegas lines have Michigan as 8.5 points favorites, a substantial sum. What sweeter way, then, to end the season than to upset your heavily favored rival on their own field? The talent is there. All it will take is one great gameplan from the coaches and one great performance from the players, a swan song to one of the greatest eras in Ohio State history.

The names Urban Meyer, Greg Studrawa, and D.J. Durkin don't matter right now. The following ones do. Luke Fickell. Jim Bollman. Jim Heacock. These are the men and minds who will determine our one-game season. The Game is here.

The Wolverine Offense

Offensive coordinator Al Borges arrived with Hoke from San Diego State, where he coordinated the Aztec offense for two seasons. He ran a West Coast scheme, but has adapted to accommodate Denard Robinson's unique skills. The no-huddle tempo is gone. We will still see the zone-read and other option plays, but they are no longer everything the offense is built around.

Robinson has regressed, according to the numbers, as a passer and rusher. Under Rodriguez,  Robinson completed 62.5% of his passes for 2,570 yards, 18 TDs, and an 8.8 yards per pass figure. He threw one interception every 26 attempts and attempted a shade more than 22 passes per game. Under Borges, his attempts per game have dropped to 20 and he's thrown one interception every 16 tries. His raw figures have dropped, too. He's only completed 54.1% of his passes for 1,889 yards and 15 TDs.

The biggest plummet, however, comes from the rushing figures. In 2010, Robinson ran for 1,702 yards on 256 attempts, or 6.65 yards per rush. This year, he's  at 993 yards on 182 attempts, or 5.46 yards per rush, more than one yard less. Different reasons have been given for the production drops, with some even suggesting that something is wrong with Robinson himself.

My belief? Robinson is the same player he was a year ago, but he's not in a system that amplifies his talents as well as the no-huddle spread option. His rushing-production drop can obviously be attributed to this, but I think it is at heart for the passing issue, too. When Robinson orchestrated an option last season, he always had a bubble screen, quick hook, or vertical route built within the read. These outlets inflated his numbers. The Michigan offense doesn't work like that anymore, so when Robinson passes, he's really passing now.

The biggest improvment from Borges to Rodriguez has been Fitzgerald Toussaint. The sophomore tailback from Youngstown has emerged to provide Michigan with something they lacked throughout the Rodriguez era, a legitimate threat other than Robinson. Toussaint has rushed for 100 yards in three of the last four games, including an MVP-esque effort against Purdue where he ran for 8.5 yards per carry.

Ohio State faces a different but still dangerous enemy with Borges' offense. The Buckeyes had to prepare for an explosive system last year, but they knew exactly what they were facing. The Wolverines have been less explosive this season, but more unpredictable. We could see I-formation and play-action, shotgun spread-to-run, or anything in between.

I cannot guarantee victory, but I will step out onto the ledge and make one strong prediction. Jim Heacock, in what may be his last game as Ohio State's defensive coordinator, will have the Silver Bullets firing fast and hard. Heacock has been a giant killer throughout his tenure, flummoxing high-powered offenses from Oregon to Arkansas, and will not let his last dance be a lackadaisical one.

The Wolverine Defense

Whatever Brady Hoke makes, Greg Mattison deserves half of it. He has morphed the Michigan defense from the objective worst in the Big Ten into one of the best, and with few personnel changes, to boot. Mattison's pedigree was unquestionable--co-defensive coordinator for the 2006 Florida Gators, Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator---but the speed with which he has improved the Wolverines has been nothing short of miraculous.

Mattison uses, as Brian at MGoBlog notes, two broad schemes: "4-3 under against plays with two guys blocking in the backfield and nickel against one or zero (backs or tight ends)". A drastic departure from former failed coordinator Greg Robinson, Michigan's simplified defense has allowed players to stick in certain roles and learn the nuances. Mattison's arrival has smoothed over the defense's rough edges, improving the performances of every position.

 Senior nose tackle Mike Martin is the clear best on the defense. Quick, powerful, and smart, Martin will give Mike Brewster everything he can handle, and maybe more. The battle between Martin and Brewster may be the most important in this game. If Brewster crumbles, our inside run game crumbles. If Brewster dominates, we gain easy access to the second level. Most likely, the two trade victories and losses the entire game.

Martin is joined by Craig Roh, Ryan Van Bergen, and Will Heininger on the line. Kenny Demens, Desmond Morgan, and Jake Ryan fill out the linebackers. They're an average group, but Mattison has them playing well against power offenses. Blake Countess and Troy Wolfork man the corner spots, and J.T. Floyd and Jordan Kovacs are the safeties. Kovacs and Floyd make mistakes, but Braxton Miller may have trouble taking advantage through the air. DeVier Posey will need to channel his inner Julio Jones and take over.

Our offensive line must show up and play like they did against Wisconsin. For all the good Mattison has done, he cannot turn his average linebackers and defensive backs into elite players. Brewster and Mike Adams will play well, certainly, but the rest must show up, too. J.B. Shugarts false starts like a machine--and will again, rest assured--but he run blocks with the best of them when he's focused.

The surest way for Ohio State to win is to play real Tresselball. Grind out tough yardage on the ground, avoid turnovers, limit Michigan's big plays. We can't score enough to match a track meet, so why even try? Accept the limitations and play within them.

It's been seven years since Michigan last defeated Ohio State. If Luke Fickell can continue that streak, and as a bridge between Tressel and Meyer, he will carve himself an everlasting portion of Ohio State lore.

Go Bucks, Beat Michigan.

Score Predictions

Ben: Michigan 24, Ohio State 17

Chip: Michigan 21, Ohio State 17

It pains me deeply to write that prediction, but Ohio State's 118th-ranked passing offense, and inconsistent defensive lapses over the last three games, make me believe Michigan wins for the first time since 2003.

Tyler: Ohio State 26, Michigan 20

The Last Dance will end as the First began.