X's and O's: Breakin' down the Wolverines

(For this article I draw heavily on the excellent work from Brian Cook and others at MGoBlog.  Other than the fact they are Michigan fans, they do a great job).

In the interest of turning the page, I have decided to provide a schematic look at the Michigan offense and defense.  I will preface this by saying that--simply on talent alone--Michigan is not 8.5 points better than Ohio State.  Michigan has been playing better football, however, and have had the breaks go their way this year (one of which was avoiding Penn State and Wisconsin and playing Nebraska, Notre Dame, and OSU at home).  Momentum can often build upon itself, and can be the difference between winning and losing.  That being said, there are not many positions where you would take the Michigan starter over his OSU counterpart.  The most obvious exception is at the Quarterback position, where Michigan has an experienced all Big Ten player while OSU is playing a true freshman.  Even there, however, Denard Robinson has not performed at the same level as last season.  The upshot is simply to state that Ohio State has a real path to victory Saturday.

The Michigan Defense: 

Greg Mattison likely deserves the coach of the year award.  As Tyler noted, Mattison has taken the Big Ten's worst defense and has made it productive with largely the same personnel.  Much of Michigan's defensive improvement stems from having a unified vision and identity.  Michigan's defense is based out of the 4-3 under. 

Michigan also likes to bring Jordan Kovacs up in the weakside box.  Expect OSU to see this whenever they are under center:

Against 10 or 11 personnel Michigan will generally go to a base 4-2-5 over nickel. 

Mattison's favorite situation, however, is to get into must-pass downs where he can unleash a variety of zone blitzes. Part of Michigan's improvement can be attributed to them confusing and harassing opposing quarterbacks through their blitz packages.

The Wolverines' defensive strength is up front, specifically NG Mike Martin. 

The defense is fairly average in the back seven.  Jordan Kovacs is effective when he can play as an additional defender in the box, which he will have opportunity to do against Ohio State.  OSU's offensive line, specifically Mike Brewster, must neutralize Martin to allow zone combo blocks get to the second level.  OSU must employ the counter trey play to slow key the Michigan linebackers, who can be tentative in their reads.  OSU must also continue to get Miller outside, through both the speed option and zone read.  I would like to see OSU work heavily from the loaded pistol, where OSU can employ both their downhill and option run game, but that may be too much to ask. 

Devier Posey is also a mismatch for Michigan's corners, so OSU must look to get him the football.  Finally, the Buckeyes must try and avoid third and long situations, where Michigan will unleash any manner of blitzes.  Braxton Miller holds the ball too long and is not comfortable scrambling in such situations to be successful. 

The Michigan Offense

The Michigan offense represents perhaps the best possible outcome of the shotgun marriage between Michigan offensive coordinator Al Borges' west coast system--where his favorite run play is 'Dave'--and Michigan's spread read personnel.  As the season has progressed Michigan has largely abandoned the I formation, from which they were ineffective.  Michigan has turned towards shotgun run formations.

While Borges deserves credit for adapting to his personnel, Michigan's spread run game is not as effective this year.  That is because, as Tyler astutely notes, that Michigan's spread run game is not a "system" but individual plays.  For instance, Michigan will not run the bubble screen even if a defense cheats their edge player into the box.  The Wolverines' shotgun run offense largely consists of zone runs, speed option, and Denard Robinson lead power runs.

    The Michigan fan base's ire has largely focused upon Robinson, specifically Robinson being less impactful with his legs.  Robinson very rarely keeps on the zone read.  Some have speculated whether the plays are not actual reads, but it may also be that Robinson is instructed to give unless blatantly obvious.  Robinson is also hesitant to scramble on called pass plays, negating a clear threat to the defense.

Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan line have made up some of the difference.  Michigan is a good zone blocking team, and Toussaint is slippery in traffic.  

Michigan's passing game remains inconsistent.    Robinson can be an effective passer when he has time to sit in the pocket and throw, but he can be pressured into poor decisions and can throw inexplicable interceptions. 

The Ohio State defense needs to first and foremost clean up its own mistakes.  The back seven has been slow in reaction and taking poor angles. 

  Andrew Sweat's return would obviously be helpful in this regard.  I expect OSU to keep Tyler Moeller close to the box, specifically cheating off a slot receiver.  Michigan will likely try to exploit what Purdue and Penn State did well, namely quick hitting zone read plays and inside screens.  OSU clearly was not prepared for Penn State's 'wildcat,' and the players did not adjust well in-game until halftime.  Ohio State's strength is in their defensive line, and they must control the line of scrimmage and not allow the Michigan linemen to get to the second level.  OSU largely knows what to expect from Michigan, and must force Michigan into third and long situations where Robinson must throw.  If they are fundamentally sound, Ohio State's defense has the talent to control Michigan's offense, and they must be opportunistic and force Robinson to throw into coverage.