Ohio State v. Indiana: Offensive Analysis

Indiana laid bare the contours of this year's Ohio State offense.  Ohio State is a very good run team.  OSU's strength is up the middle, from their offensive line to Zach Boren to Boom Herron and his back-ups.  Ohio State has a great change-of-pace to that run game in Braxton Miller's feet.  But Ohio State has an inconsistent passing game, and it will simply have to rely upon its 1-2 punch to move the football with the passing game at best as a change-of-pace.  Against Indiana, OSU called many of the quick passing game and other 'constraint' plays many have been calling for, but for middling success at best.  Fortunately for Ohio State, having the mix of an inside and quarterback run game gives you enough in college football to be successful.  

The Indiana Plan:  Barricade the Doors

Indiana adopted a basic 'underdog' strategy--they loaded the line with bodies, blitzed defensive backs from every angle, and hoped to make a play while simultaneously being vulnerable to explosive plays (20+ yards).  The Hoosiers generally featured a base 4-3 stack with an additional safety as 8th man in the box.  (1:21 mark). 

On run downs, Indiana would then bring a weak corner blitz.  Indiana was able to snuff several weakside lead zone runs with this approach.  On passing downs the blitz happy attitude was more pronounced, with Indiana often bringing at least the two inside linebackers on a double A-gap blitz, if not also the two safeties with cover-0 behind.  (:59 second mark). 

The Ohio State (Attempted Practice)

If there was ever a game where the stats did not tell the story, this is it.  One would see that Ohio State only had 11 passing attempts, and think that OSU continued to run the football.  But the reality is that OSU actually called between 20-25 passes.  In fact, for 2 and 1/2 quarters, Ohio State attempted to use the game as a glorified scrimmage.  The reason I say this is that I believe Ohio State threw in situations where they would have otherwise run the football if they believed the game in doubt.  Three specific situations come to mind.

• Ohio State got the football back with a little over 4:00 to go in the second quarter and plenty of time to run their normal offense.  Instead, they threw three straight passes, including a quick hitch play that Miller threw low and Corey Brown dropped, and a double slant pass that sailed over Brown's head. 
  
• In the third quarter, Ohio State was at the IU 20 and yet ran three straight pass plays.
• Ohio State was second and goal and yet threw the football, taking a sack that they were bailed out of by Braxton's Miller's QB-draw touchdown run.

These are just a few small, but telling examples where, in my opinion, Ohio State broke tendency to work on their passing game.  OSU also showed some diversity within the passing game.  As noted, OSU threw several quick hitches and double slants.  They also threw two bubble screens, and three different bootlegs. 

Despite this, the Buckeye passing game resulted in decidedly mixed success.  Much of this is the unavoidable result of having a true freshman quarterback.  Miller is uncertain and cautious in his reads.  This results not only in incompletions, but negative plays.  For instance, at the :13 second mark above, you will see Miller's fumble.  On that play, Jake Stoneburner runs a simple 10 yard curl route, and is open behind the blitz.  Miller, for whatever reason, does not pull the trigger, and holds the ball too long.  Of Ohio State's six sacks, 5 were on Miller for holding the football too long (the sixth was a naked bootleg where IU advantageously blitzed right into it).  If one puts the sack yards together with the passing stats, the passing game was decidedly unproductive. 

This is not simply a Braxton Miller issue, however.  He is not helped an also-inexperienced wide receiver corps that has difficulty getting open and then has had drop issues.  Put together it makes execution difficult.

Game Theory (Revisited)

I have discussed this previously, but I believe it an important point so I will state again.  'Balance' is not simply running and passing 50% of the time.  Instead, as Chris Brown has elucidated, balance must be understood as maximizing yards per play by reaching an equilibrium between your running and passing yards per attempt (including a passing 'premium') that demonstrates you are successfully constraining the defense.  If you run and pass 30 times each, but your run plays net 8 yards per attempt, and your passing plays net 1 yard per attempt (or vice versa) you are leaving yards on the football field.  In such a situation you should continue to run the ball until the defense stops you.  

I note this to say that while people may think Ohio State is currently not balanced they may actually be quite balanced according to game theory.  In fact, if the Indiana game is any indication, they may have thrown the football too much.  Part of the issue is that Miller indecisiveness when dropping back also limits his running threat on called pass plays.  If he would simply scramble once he does not feel comfortable with his initial reads he would gain yards.  But he holds the ball so long it allows the pocket to eventually crash down. 

The counter argument to this is that the Ohio State passing game--by design or situation--is not putting the passing offense in a position to succeed.  There is something to this.  Miller is decidedly most comfortable throwing the quick game from the shotgun (2:56) and OSU should continue to emphasize the pistol (which I will get back to later).  But these arguments were more forceful prior to this game.  As noted, against Indiana the Buckeyes threw on run downs and threw a variety of routes.  While perhaps not a statistically significant sample size, it nonetheless provides a window to the limitations faced by the coaching staff.    

And Now the Good News...

But this is not all bad news.  To the contrary, Ohio State gained over 300 yards through a 1-2 punch run game of the downhill I run game supported by the QB draw and option game.  OSU could have likely rushed for over 500 yards if they were not running a glorified scrimmage.  Because the other thing OSU tried to do--other than work on their passing game--was to put them breaking tendencies upon tape.  Some of this was down & distance tendencies, such as I noted above.  It also was breaking tendencies by formation.  For example, OSU largely avoided the pistol.  When they did go pistol, they got in the identical 12 personnel, tight trips formation from which Miller successfully ran the speed option, but then broke tendency by running stretch (with Brewter and Mike Adams fold blocking).  (3:14 mark). 

But more than anything else, Ohio State has a dominant offensive line (and fullback) and two dynamic ball carriers in Boom Herron and Braxton Miller.  Ohio State's offensive line and Herron have proven able to run against 8 and 9 man fronts, because the line can control the line of scrimmage and Herron can set up the additional safety.  At the 2:38 mark, look how well OSU executes counter trey, with Mike Adams and Andrew Norwell collapsing down the line, Jack Mewhort pulling around and squaring up the linebacker, and then Boom Herron drawing the safety up and then bouncing it outside. 

As I said after Colorado, Miller then gives Ohio State a second dimension to the offense.  Miller is a far more versatile runner then Terrelle Pryor, who needed to get to the edge to get effective.  Miller, by contrast, can break ankles, making him so effective on the quarterback draw (Herron is also a fantastic lead blocker on these plays, turning it effectively into a lead draw) (3:30 mark).  Miller therefore allows OSU to do more with the QB run game.  In close games, look for Ohio State to continue to use ample amounts of the pistol formation, which allows them to mix both the downhill and QB run game.  Devier Posey's return will provide a key lift to the OSU passing offense because he is so significantly better than the other wide receivers.  But for the remaining future, Boom Herron and Braxton Miller's legs will be what  the Ohio State offense rides upon.