Analyzing the Enemy: Purdue Boilermakers and An Immobile Feast

Danny Hope's days appear numbered. Hope's predecessor, Joe Tiller, never had consecutive losing seasons in his twelve years at the helm of Purdue's football program. Hope is on the verge of his third straight. Staring down this ignominious achievement, Hope must win two of his final three games for Purdue to become bowl-eligible and possibly save his job.

Purdue could grant the third-year head coach another chance regardless of the final record, but to what point? Under Hope, Purdue has fallen from the Big Ten's mid-tier and settled snugly into its depths, next to Minnesota and hated rival Indiana. The Boilermakers have done nothing well since Tiller's retirement and the future looks bleak-- they had the worst recruiting class in Rivals' Big Ten rankings last season and lost the gem of their class, quarterback Russell Bellomy, to Michigan right before Signing Day.

In a fitting symbol of the Hope era, the Boilermakers' 2011 season opened with a devastating injury. Sophomore quarterback Rob Henry, who gutted out a few starts as a true freshman, tore his ACL in fall camp and was ruled out for the entire season. Making matters worse, Robert Marve, who began 2010 as Purdue's starting quarterback before an ACL tear ended his season, had suffered a setback in rehab and was unable to replace Henry immediately. That left third-string quarterback Caleb TerBush as the new signal-caller.

TerBush performed as well as a third-string quarterback should in his first two starts, throwing for 401 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt, and a 58% completion percentage. Marve returned in week three, and the pair have since split the quarterbacking duties to mediocre results. TerBush has played slightly better than Marve, according to traditional measures, but the Purdue staff apparently sees some value in a two quarterback system without defined roles.

The fans at Hammer and Rails want to see Marve start against Ohio State, if for no other reason than the glimmer of hope change brings.

The Boilermaker Offense, Bad Against Good Defenses

Last weekend, Wisconsin released some stored frustration after a two-game slide and demolished Purdue, 62-17.  It continued a Purdue trend of folding against better competition. A week earlier, the Boilermakers jumped out to an early lead against Michigan only to crumble and lose by 22 points.

In fact, the difference between Purdue's performance against its best five opponents and its worst four is truly stunning. From Notre Dome, bringing up the rear at 39th, to Illinois, leading the vanguard at 6th, Purdue has faced five teams that rank in the top 40 total defenses in the country. Against those teams, Purdue has been horrible, averaging 16 points and about 300 yards per game. Likewise, tough defensive efforts were the only things keeping Purdue alive against Illinois and Penn State.

Unlike Ohio State's opponent last Saturday, Indiana, the Boilermaker offense has been borderline non-competitive against anything but the weakest opponents. Middle Tennessee, Rice, Southeast Missouri State, and Minnesota provided light front sevens and slow athletes, allowing Purdue tailbacks Ralph Bolden and Akeem Shavers freedom to roam. The pair have combined for 807 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, leading a rushing attack that has experimented with many members. Seven tailbacks, six receivers, and three quarterbacks have received carries, nine in double-digits.

Offensive coordinator Gary Nord runs a hybrid pro-style/spread offense that was quite effective in his first season but has since atrophied. The precarious quarterback situation has encouraged Nord's unorthodox running back committee in order to protect TerBush and Marve, whose offensive line has not helped them. Despite only attempting 29 passes per game, the two have been sacked 18 times and thrown 13 interceptions, which amounts to one extreme setback every nine pass attempts.

Really, there is little excuse for Ohio State's defense to not dominate Purdue. The Boilermakers have been inept against talented defenses, and the Buckeyes may be the best they've seen yet. Ohio State should push the Purdue running game backwards and have no trouble with the anemic passing attack, which more often than not shoots itself in the foot.

Eliminate the big plays given to Indiana, and we return to stingy Silver Bullet defense.

The Boilermaker Defense, Bad Against Most

With Ryan Kerrigan's graduation to the NFL, Purdue lost its best defensive player and sole pass rusher. Kerrigan had more sacks in 2010 than Purdue's entire defensive line has this season. Defensive tackle Kawann Short, at a hefty 310 pounds, leads the team with 3.5 sacks and anchors the middle. Defensive ends Gerald Gooden and Robert Maci are both light and have had trouble against bigger offensive linemen. Wisconsin's line pushed Purdue's small front seven around like grocery carts, and the Badgers rushed for 365 rushing yards and averaged nearly 8 yards per play.

The best gameplan for Jim Bollman will be his only gameplan, a heavy rushing diet. Purdue has some talented defensive backs-- sophomore Ricardo Allen and senior Albert Evans-- but teams usually have no need to test them given the front seven's struggles. A power run, I-formation offense will feast upon the Boilermakers as long as it can out-muscle them. The offense's success, as it has all season, will rest on the shoulders of Mike Brewster and company.

Ideally, I would like to see Braxton Miller pass more, but  young Ohio State quarterbacks have a troubled history in Ross-Aide Stadium. Terrelle Pryor's self-immolation at Purdue in 2009 sticks in my memory a bit too much, and I would gladly accept a nice, safe victory and another chance at a Big Ten championship.

Score Predictions

Chip: Ohio State 28 Purdue 17

Ohio State remembers the loss there in 2009.  Purdue will try to replicate Indiana's success, but Ohio State will grind the ball on the ground, like Wisconsin did.

Tyler: Ohio State 31 Purdue 10

Ben: Ohio State 31 Purdue 13