Northwestern @ Ohio State Basketball Preview and Gamethread

What: Northwestern Wildcats @ Ohio State Buckeyes

When: Wednesday, December 28th; 5:30 p.m.

Where: Value City Arena; Columbus, Ohio

Television: Big Ten Network

Wildcats' Record:10-2

Opposing Coverage: Northwestern Wildcats Official Website

Ohio State's conference play begins with the Northwestern Wildcats, who travel to Columbus after a tough loss to #23 Creighton last Thursday night. Northwestern trailed Creighton by one point at halftime, but could not keep pace in the second period and fell, 87-79.

Only their second loss of the season, Northwestern has fared well against a reasonably difficult early slate, winning two of three games against the RPI Top 50. The Wildcats' other defeat, against #7 Baylor, was an entirely non-competitive game, the sole ugly blemish upon their young season. Baylor throttled them, 69-41, led by 6''7 forward Quincy Acy and shooting guard Pierre Jackson, who had 16 points apiece.

Baylor's success against Northwestern can be a blueprint for Ohio State's gameplan today. Northwestern lacks a dominant big man that can directly match up with hefty forwards like Acy or Jared Sullinger, 6''11, 245 lbs. center Luka Mirkovic being the player that most closely fills that role. Mirkovic, or whomever else draws the role, cannot mirror Sullinger precisely, and we will most likely see a zone defense that doubles Sullinger whenever he enters the post. Northwestern has used some 1-3-1 zone this season, which would theoretically work well against Sullinger in the high post, moving bodies into his path, but would also open up the low post and leave the corners clear for Deshaun Thomas.

Historically under Bill Carmody, Northwestern has outperformed their resources offensively, but have struggled on defense. If Ohio State executes as they have in their other home games this season, it will be nigh impossible for Northwestern to prevent the Buckeyes from scoring. Without the personnel to match Ohio State man-for-man, there will always be an open spot in any zone defense the Buckeyes face. Thomas, William Buford, and Ohio State's other shooters must simply make their shots.

The Wildcats roster is filled with long, athletic players like senior forward John Shurna and junior combo Drew Crawford, the Wildcats' best pure shooter. Shurna leads Northwestern with 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He's the Wildcats best overall player, yet he has seen increased competition for that title from Crawford, who scored 34 points against Creighton and has improved his consistency from a year ago.

• Ohio State has won 85% of their games against Northwestern since 1980.
• Northwestern shoots well (54.3% eFG%) and protects their possessions (15.1% turnover percentage). Ohio State holds a significant offensive rebounding edge over the Wildcats, however, and takes more shots at the free throw line.
• If Northwestern is to pull the upset, 3-point shooting will probably have something to do with it. While Ohio State out-shoots the Wildcats in 2-pointers (by 18%, to be exact), Northwestern out-shoots the Buckeyes on 3-point shots, 38% to 18%. What we may see from Northwestern is a thick barrage of 3-point shots from the beginning, an attempt to make up for the reduced odds of making a 3-pointer with pure quantity. The more Northwestern attempts, the more they'll make.
• Matta has stated that the offense has regressed in the wake of Sullinger's persistent injuries. Certainly, without Sullinger in the line-up, Ohio State's offense is less successful, but I'm not convinced Sullinger's absence has been an actual negative for the team. It's good, I think, for the players to see adversity when the stakes are low, and it's equally good for other players to be thrust into the fire and asked to compete without Sullinger there to bail them out. A loss to Kansas in December may pay off in March.
• The Big Ten has the top RPI in the country, a fact Nebraska head coach Doc Sadler lamented recently. Unfortunately ... it looks like it’s the best league in the country," Sadler said. "That’s not good as far as I’m concerned. But I’m happy for all the fans and the other schools." Welcome to the conference, Big Red.