Gator Bowl Preview: The Mystifying Offense of the Florida Gators

What: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

When: Monday, January 2nd; 1:00 p.m.

Where: Everbank Field; Jacksonville, Florida

Television: ESPN2

Gators' Record: 6-6

Opposing Coverage: Alligator Army

Under Urban Meyer, the Florida Gators were known for explosive offenses that piled up points and buried opposing defenses beneath a deluge of speed. In Meyer's final season at Florida, 2010, the Gators lost their explosive reputation as Meyer tried morphing the offense from a pure spread-option scheme into a multiple one, exchanging mobile Tim Tebow for statue John Brantley in the process.

Following Meyer's retirement, the Gators hired Will Muschamp, who in turn hired Charlie Weis to install a pro-style offense that would better fit Brantley's abilities. How well did the new Gator offense work in 2011?

Not well. The Gators ranked 102nd in total offense and 76th in points scored, mirroring the offensive troubles we've seen Ohio State experience the past year. Brantley, a senior, played better than a year ago, but failed to achieve the results expected of a former five star quarterback recruit. Weis, who faced near constant criticism over his play-calling, bolted to become the head coach at Kansas, leaving running backs coach Brian White to form the gameplan and call plays for the Gator Bowl.

Florida's last game, in particular, left a rancid taste in the mouth of Gator fans who witnessed a 7-point, 184-yard meek showing against rival Florida State. Brantley threw three interceptions against the Seminoles before leaving with a concussion. His back-up, true freshman Jacoby Brissett, proceeded to toss an interception of his own, this one so infuriating that it caused at least one respected Gator blogger to question Brissett's future as Florida's future.

So, Buckeye fans, take heart. We have found our partner in offensive ineptitude, our frustrated twin soul.

Strategy Time

Bill Connelly's S&P+ rating, which measures the explosion and consistency of an offense, weighted for competition, has Florida's offense ranked significantly higher than the raw numbers, an arguable benefit of playing in the always difficult SEC. Ohio State's offense, ranked 107th in total yards, also saw a sizable bump to 68th, but the Gator offense, according to S&P+, can be seen as one of the 45 best in college football, which does not square with the raw figures, the win-loss record, or the eyes of Gator fans. So who's right? Well, everyone and no one.

Diving into S&P+'s further distinctions, we can glean certain information about how the divide formed. S&P+ is filtered into Standard Down figures and Passing Down figures. Passing Downs are defined as second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, and fourth-and-5 or more, i.e. downs where teams will pass a clear majority of the time. Standard Downs are everything else, downs that don't qualify as Passing Downs.

The Florida Gators were far better on Standard Downs this season than their total figures suggest. The Gators ranked 13th in the country in S&P+ on Standard Downs, meaning they were actually one of the best offenses when they stayed ahead of the chains and defenses were unable to predict passes and runs. The trouble, and anxiety for Florida fans, came when the Gators were in obvious passing situations, where they ranked 80th in the country, much worse, even, than Ohio State's own anemic offense which ranked 45th.

So the gameplan for both Ohio State and Florida should be clear based upon these numbers. The Buckeyes want to keep Florida predictable, stopping whatever the Gators attempt on first down to set up advantageous second-and-third down situations. Florida must avoid predictability at all costs and have success on first down, keeping themselves out of Passing Down situations. Whichever team imposes their goal upon the other will gain control of the Gator Bowl.

Players, Good and Bad

It's unclear how much John Brantley will play. His tepid performance throughout the season has some arguing that Brissett and fellow freshman Jeff Driskel should receive the majority of snaps, thus jump-starting the 2012 season. If Florida plays to win the bowl, and bypasses any spurious future edge playing the freshmen would offer, they stand a better shot at moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. Brantely, despite his mediocrity, has more experience and success than either of the freshmen, who have both seen limited time.

Jeff Demps

No matter who plays at quarterback, the Gators will need their offensive line to perform at a higher level than they have all season. Muschamp has criticized the strength and toughness of the line, whose members were recruited to play within a spread-option scheme, and a spate of injuries has only deepened the issues. Ohio State's front four, light on speed but heavy on weight, should hold an edge here.The Gator line has given up a shade under two sacks per game, most of which came against SEC defenses.

The dangerous aspects of Florida's offenses rests entirely in their running game, where senior stars Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps are set to cap explosive careers. Rainey and Demps account for 77% of the Gators' rushing yards and 33% of their total yards, which is a clear signal that the offense runs through its running backs. Florida's best offense games--against Florida Atlantic, Tennessee, and Kentucky--saw Rainey and Demps have huge games. Against Kentucky, the pair exploded for over 100 yards apiece.

Florida's receiving corp is filled with two types of players: the young but talented, or the experienced but average. Upperclassmen Deonte Thompson, Frankie Hammond Jr., and Omarius Hines fizzled out after playing bit roles in Meyer's offense the previous few years, leaving youngsters Andre Debose, Quinton Dunbar, and Solomon Patton as the real yet unproven threats. Debose is a speed demon, a fifty cents on the dollar version of Ted Ginn Jr., and doubles as the Gators kick returner.

Stopping Rainey and Demps is priority number one. If that is achieved, everything else falls into a neat little line. Florida's passing success comes almost entirely off play-action, and without a successful ground game, the play-action threat disappears. I expect Luke Fickell and Jim Heacock to make use of their weight advantage along the line, playing a conservative zone strategy on Standard Downs and sending edge pressure on Passing Downs. Run blitzes will be more prevalent than pass blitzes, but some pressure will be needed given Ohio State's lack of a true edge rusher.

Ryan Shazier, who called himself 85-90% healthy in his recovery from an injury against Michigan, will play, making him an important figure under this strategy. Depending on which outside linebacker position Shazier mans, he will face either left tackle Matt Patchan or right tackle Chaz Green, a redshirt freshman. Ohio State has the muscle to stop the run, but will need Shazier's speed to pressure whomever Florida places at quarterback.