Spring Forecasting: Ohio State Must Replace 42% of Receiving Yards

One of the most effective ways to forecast an offense for the upcoming season is to examine the percentage of yards that will be lost from the previous season. By breaking down where an offense's yards came from, we not only see which players most urgently need to be replaced, but we can also predict what next season's offense will look like.

Dane Sanzenbacher's graduation leaves a gaping hole in the Ohio State offense. You can debate whether DeVier Posey or Sanzenbacher were more important to last season's passing attack, but Sanzenbacher's production is undeniable. He accounted for 32% of Ohio State's receiving yards and filled the "security blanket" role for Terrelle Pryor. Primarily playing the slot and flanker receiver positions, Sanzenbacher's routes would take him across the middle often, and he took some hard hits in his time at Ohio State. His toughness and uncanny ability to settle into holes in zone coverage bailed out the Buckeye offense on more than one occasion, and he will be sorely missed.

DeVier Posey returns, but only after sitting out the first five games. Statistically, Posey improved only slightly on his 828-yard 2009 season, but his growth as a player was evident. He was more physical with defensive backs, gained better separation at the top of his vertical routes, and generally improved in every aspect of his position. He was just needed less. Ohio State quarterbacks threw for about 700 more yards in 2010 than 2009, reducing the passing game's reliance on Posey and spreading the ball around more than 2009. Still, the 2010 passing attack was largely a two-man game, and that's a disturbing sign heading into this season.

With Posey's absence and Sanzenbacher's graduation, the Buckeyes will be without 61% of their receiving yards from 2010 for the first five games. That number is almost staggering when you factor in a first-time starting quarterback and the absence of Jim Tressel on the sideline.

Tight ends Jake Stoneburner and Reid Fragel are returning, but they only accounted for a combined 11% of receiving yards last season. Departing running back Brandon Saine gained 6.5% of the Buckeyes' passing yards, and tailback Jordan Hall and fullback Zach Boren combined for 5% of receiving yards. Boom Herron added 6% on his own, but he too will miss the first five games.

Besides Posey and Sanzenbacher, there were no other wide receivers who contributed significantly. True freshman Corey Brown saw increased playing time as the season went along, but his production was very small and his snap count limited. Without Posey, Brown needs to make a big leap in his sophomore season. He will replace Posey at the split-end position unless redshirt freshman T.Y. Williams makes an even bigger leap. The mammoth Williams has the prototype body for split-end, but he's so raw and inexperienced that he may be limited to certain passing packages within the offense next year. If Williams does earn the spot at split-end, Brown would flip to flanker and allow redshirt sophomore Chris Fields to settle into the slot position.

Fields has been practicing at both slot and flanker, but his short-stride length and quickness makes him an excellent fit for the slot. If there's a single receiver on the roster who can partially fill Sanzenbacher's knack for slipping between defenders in zone coverage, it's Fields. He's not a downfield burner, but he is quick as a rabbit and has been in the system for two full seasons now. He fell behind Corey Brown on the depth chart last season, but he has an opportunity to play a lot this year if he can earn it. With a large group of first or second year players nipping at his heels, Fields may never receive a better chance to play at Ohio State than these first five games.

Along with T.Y. Williams, the 2010 recruiting class had two talented receivers, Verlon Reed and James Louis, sit out with a redshirt last season. It takes time for young players to learn the nuance of playing receiver, but Ohio State has no time to wait for the 2010 class to master their position. All three players were very raw coming in as freshman-- Reed wasn't even a receiver in high school--  but they are all tasked with developing quickly. True freshmen Evan Spencer and Devin Smith will join the team for fall camp, but it's unrealistic to expect them to contribute early. It's never clear how developed recruits are until they compete against college athletes, and the coaches can't rely on true freshmen to step in and play well with only thirty days of practice under their belts.

Ultimately, the passing game is going to be rough to begin the season. Until Pryor, Posey, and Mike Adams return, expect fewer formations, personnel groupings, and plays than we saw last season. With so much youth, the coaches will not be able to implement varied gameplans and multiple packages into the offense. The offense's strength will be its tight ends and running backs, so expect predominantly 12 (one back, two bigs) and 21 (two backs,one big) personnel formations. During spring practice, the staff has been using tailbacks Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry as pseudo-wide receivers by motioning them out in the slot. If the young wide receivers do not improve in fall camp, expect Hall and Berry to be heavily involved in the passing game come September.