Expansion Talk: Everything's Bigger in Texas

The Big Ten caused minor tremors around NCAA Division I conferences in December 2009 when announcing it was doing the waltz with prospective conference expansion. Within several months , however, it was the University of Texas doing the Texas two-step with the Pac-10 that had created a full-blown quake.

When the dust settled, Texas and their Big 12 cohorts Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Texas Tech remained affiliates after a last-ditch, 13-year broadcast rights agreement was reached with Fox Sports, a 10-team Big 12 conference and a 12-team Big Ten conference was left standing.

As expansion rumors subsided, the Pac-10, Big Ten, WAC, Mountain West and Big East were among the conferences effected by change. However, the feared expansion armageddon never came to fruition. 

For the past year, conferences returned to business as usual. This month marks the official debut of Nebraska in the newly-minted Big Ten which will boast unusual divisional names "Legends" and "Leaders" beginning this fall on the gridiron. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 will settle for Rocky Mountain tenants Colorado and Utah to grow to 12 teams rather than last summer's rumored inhabitants from the Great Plains.

Perhaps understandably, the college athletics world was lulled into a false sense of security. That sense was abruptly eroded the past few weeks as rumors have again surfaced of Texas A&M's ongoing flirtation with the SEC. In reality, further expansion has always been a near foregone conclusion.

Let's go back to 2009 where this all began. 

The Big Ten's stated purpose of expansion was to grow their inventory and increase their presence on the Big Ten Network. The network, of which is half-owned by the conference members themselves, receives as much as $0.75 more per subscriber per month within the conference boundaries. This means adding new states to the charter increases the number of eyeballs watching on basic/expanded cable packages and boosts the revenue from the homes already having the network on its package. 

Ultimately, the conference Vis`-a-vis´ the network, had ambitions of landing a big-market fish. Syracuse, Maryland or even the grand prize: Texas, would expand the geographical footprint leading to a dramatic increase in profits. 

Considering commissioner Jim Delany's ambitious goals, Nebraska still feels like merely an appetizer before the main entrée. 

The Huskers wound up the Big Ten's twelfth member after an unexpected ultimatum from the Big 12 forced their hand prematurely. While Nebraska may ultimately have been invited later in the process in an expansion to 14-16 teams, they likely weren't expected recipients of such an invite that quickly. Nonetheless, having a population of 1.7 million according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Huskers will sell ratings but certainly not a high number of cable subscribers to the network.

Simply put: don't expect the Big Ten has fully suppressed their appetite for expansion.

Delany has craved Notre Dame for several years. He still assuredly has Texas president William Powers on speed dial if (read: when) the Big 12 begins bickering again. Lastly, rumors repeated last week by SI's Jon Heyman that the Big Ten has North Carolina and Duke on its radar serve as a reminder that Delany is still thinking outside the box.

While the Big Ten was seen as creating the expansion the last time around, it has reportedly assured it won't be the one to disrupt the landscape this time around. The underlying assumption here is that they'll let someone else start it, but they'll most certainly finish it. 

With rumors surfacing of unhappiness by Texas A&M with the new Texas television network arrangement--a deal worth $300 million over 20 years--the Big Ten might not have to wait long to pounce. 

The rescuing of the Big 12 was more of a patch for a flat tire than getting brand new wheels. The underlying resentment created with inequality in revenue sharing and a Texas ego the size of, well, Texas, will forever cause instability. With many of A&M's prominent trustees, boosters and executives craving the attention from the SEC, it's only a matter of time before they create the next wave of expansion.

But this time, conference musical chairs could be the death of the NCAA. 

If Texas A&M bolts for the SEC, it will necessitate at least one other team following them and probably three. With a 16-team SEC stealing from the Big 12 or ACC, a domino effect will occur where Big 12 leftovers and the Big East schools scramble to find homes. When the music stops, there will likely be 4-5 major conferences of 16 teams. When that happens, it might be only a matter of a few years before the relationship with the NCAA becomes tenuous. 

It seems only a very talented faith healer can undo the damage created from 13 years of bad blood in the Midwest. The latest rumors might simply be a false alarm, but the day of reckoning is coming soon. 

One minor movement could create a seismic shift. If Oklahoma follows the Aggies eastward, suddenly Delany might do a line dance right down toward Austin. Texas is a cultural fit for the Big Ten athletically and academically. However, more than geography, they have a network revenue that would need to be reconciled for the Big Ten to do the tango with them. After all, the Big Ten has an even sharing agreement, and it remains to be seen if Texas would be willing to accept a lesser share to balance their revenue from their own network. 

With or without Texas, the Big Ten will look at Missouri to the west, south toward Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, North Carolina and Duke; and eastward they'll keep an eye on Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers and Syracuse in hopes of capturing the Washington D.C. and/or New York markets. When Notre Dame finally sees the writing on the wall with megaconferences, the Irish will surely acquiesce to becoming members. 

The Aggies' happiness has a lot riding on it: Delany's self-fulfillment; Notre Dame's independence; the Big East's survival or, at very least, not becoming geographically challenged; and schools like Iowa State and Baylor hoping not to turn into a pumpkin overnight.

If history hasn't taught us already, they do things a little bit differently in Texas. It's also taught us expansion is just getting warmed up.