Analysis of the Enemy: Denard Robinson's New Offense

Ohio State's tumultuous offseason created many compelling storylines for the Big Ten, but it has also overshadowed some preexisting points of interest, like Brady Hoke's new regime at Michigan.

With two new coordinators and entirely new schemes on both sides of the ball, the 2011 Wolverines will look much different than the 2010 version, in style if not performance.

New offensive coordinator Al Borges brings a West Coast structure with him from San Diego State, where his offense ranked well nationally in 2010, placing 16th in total offense and 29th in scoring.

Borges, an experienced coach who found success with Cade McNown at UCLA in the '90s and Jason Campbell at Auburn in the mid-2000s, has plans to make the offense "fit" for Denard Robinson, a general statement that doesn't provide much clarity to anyone looking for specific answers.

Michigan's movement away from Rich Rodriguez's spread-to-run system is assured, however, and the end result, if Borges' past and Michigan's spring game is to be trusted, will be a pseudo-West Coast offense with more designed quarterback runs than the system is traditionally known for.

By my count, Denard Robinson received 32 snaps in the Michigan spring game, including a few plays nullified by penalties.  Seventeen snaps came from under center (53%) and 29 included at least two non-receivers (91%), a stunning reversal from a year ago. With Robinson at quarterback, Borges used seven different personnel groupings and roughly nine different formations, five of which placed Robinson under center. The I-formation, which retreated into some hidden burrow at Rodriguez's hiring, has returned as the star of Borges' multiple offense. Twelve plays, the most of any single formation, were run from the I, no doubt causing a wide smile to break on Bo Schembechler's presumably angelic face.

More than anything, the Michigan offense under Lloyd Carr appears back structurally. Multiple backs, bigs, and formations indicate a return to the pro-style scheme Carr's Wolverines exhibited throughout his tenure. There will be important differences in the actual plays-- likely more 3 and 5-step passing-- but the deployment of players and formations will resemble the stereotype of a Michigan offense.

Quarterbacks always receive the most attention when offensive systems change, but offensive lines can struggle with style changes just as much. When Rich Rodriguez arrived, he stressed mobility and conditioning above raw strength in switching the Wolverine offensive line to a no-huddle, purely zone-blocking scheme. Stories leaked from Ann Arbor of offensive linemen struggling to adapt to the frenetic pace, and the 2008 Michigan offense failed to do anything positive, in part due to the offensive line.

After viewing Michigan's spring game, I think the offensive line's transition will be much easier this time around. Borges appears to be maintaining the zone-blocking structure of the rushing offense while adding a bit more man-blocking, mostly in the form of pulling guards and power runs. Ditching the no-huddle pace may take some adjustment, but it's easier to slow down than speed up.

It's a misnomer, too, that zone-blocking is reserved for spread teams or small linemen. Wisconsin, who had perhaps the best and biggest offensive line in college football last season, runs a scheme dependent on zone-blocking. In 2006, Lloyd Carr moved the Michigan offensive line to a primarily zone-blocking one, so what we see from Borges seems in line with the latter Carr years. If anything, the offensive line should be the strength of the Michigan offense in 2011.

Following the scrimmage, Borges said that 60% of the Michigan offense had been installed during the spring and 40% was on display. He stressed balance, versatility, and progress, and mentioned their focus on developing Denard Robinson as a total quarterback, not just an athlete running. Borges' intentions may be admirable, but I see nothing but struggle in Robinson's future as a quarterback in this retooled system.

To be brief, Robinson was awful in the spring game. Other than a a 55-yard run on a quarterback draw taken from the Rodriguez playbook, he struggled. 5-of-14 passing, 70 yards, a few fumbled snaps, and an awkwardness that looked entirely different from his 2010, Superman-esque form. Granted, it was a spring game and 32 snaps is a limited sample size, but the depth of Robinson's struggles leaves no doubt that the 2011 Michigan offense will be much worse than the 2010, record-setting version.

If Robinson significantly improves as a passer, these observations will be silly in retrospect, but I'm not sure he can.  Urban Meyer, who ran a slightly different spread-to-run at Florida, recruited Robinson as a defensive back for a reason. While Robinson would have certainly fared better in Meyer's offense than the woeful John Brantley, his passing skills are still rough enough to warrant questioning.

Everything within Rodriguez's spread-to-run, no-huddle system is a read by the quarterback, or a byproduct of a read. When the system works, it really works, and not just in production. A perfect Rodriguez offense, invariably orchestrated by an agile quarterback, has a quality to it that other offenses lack, a certain flow that determines the pace and temperature of a game. Last season's Michigan offense had too much variation to be considered perfect, but it found the perfect quarterback in Denard Robinson.

Robinson's impressive passing efficiency last season, I think, can be attributed more to the Rodriguez system than any inherent passing ability, a system with built-in routes designed to work with Robinson's lightning legs. When the slot receiver slipped behind a safety peeking into the backfield, it was an easy touchdown throw made possible by the system and Robinson's quicks. The flow isn't there anymore, and the designed quarterback runs now seem artificial and forced.

In the long-term, I think Al Borges will find success at Michigan. He already has a commitment from 2013 quarterback Shane Morris, a big, left-handed, pro-style passer who lit up every camp he attended in the offseason. The future of Michigan football looks a lot like the past, which will make many Michigan fans happy, but it may swallow up Denard Robinson's career in the process.