Analysis of the Enemy: The Miami Hurricanes and a Golden Era

The rumor spread on Monday. College football's grim reaper, Charles Robinson, had completed another investigation into a nationally known program and Yahoo! was set to publish the report. A day later, August 16th, it had been more than confirmed. Following ten months spent investigating the Miami Hurricanes, guided by convicted felon and disgruntled former booster Nevin Shapiro, Robinson had unearthed a widespread scandal, spanning ten seasons, that threatened an entire Hurricane era and indicted an athletics department for gross negligence and outright hypocrisy.

The NCAA deemed Shapiro's claims credible enough, and Miami now finds itself embroiled in a far-reaching, invasive NCAA inquiry that will extend into the 2011 season. Starting quarterback Jacory Harris, along with four others, were suspended for one game, and they will return this weekend as the Hurricanes prepare for Ohio State under new head coach Al Golden, who walked into a tempest unwittingly after Randy Shannon's firing.

Three athletes remain suspended-- weakside end Olivier Vernon, strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong, and tight end Dyron Dye-- and their absence will be felt. Starters a year ago, Vernon and Armstrong's replacements, end Adewale Ojomo and safety JoJo Nicholas, are capable players, but their depth-chart rise weakens the Hurricanes' depth considerably.

A frustrated Golden described the cascade effect, telling the Miami Herald, "Every move that you have to make in a situation requires two moves, because we didn’t have the depth just to have them ascend on the depth chart. It required lateral moves, which made things difficult."

The Hurricane Offense

Last season's Miami offense regressed in production from 2009, falling 36 spots in scoring offense, yet the Hurricanes still moved the ball well, ranking 31st in the country in total yards. The discrepancy can be explained by one name: Jacory Harris. Miami's third-year starting quarterback fell apart on the road against Ohio State in week two, tossing four interceptions, and then continued to fall in ACC play, eventually culminating in a benching in the Sun Bowl against Notre Dame.

Harris' 2010 stat line was awful: 54.8% completion percentage, 6.6 yards per completion, and one interception every 18 pass attempts. He struggled to run former offensive coordinator Mark Whipple's NFL-esque offense, which relied on heavy play-action and required a stronger arm than Harris' possessed.

Replacing Whipple, new offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch installed his own NFL-esque offense after coaching quarterbacks under Pete Carroll for one season in Seattle, a job he took following one season as offensive coordinator at Minnesota. Fisch's Golden Gopher playbook was ineffective and dense, and it's unclear whether he's learned from his brief college hiatus.

Left tackle Joel Figueroa, a sixth-year senior and former guard, should face Buckeye defensive end Nate Williams for much of the night, an advantageous match-up for Ohio State. Figueroa played horribly in four games as a fill-in tackle last year, but Seantrel Henderson's back injury forced Al Golden to return to the Figueroa experiment. Like former Buckeye Bryant Browning, Figueroa is wildly out of position and remains an attractive target for defensive coordinators.

Miami's line is strongest down the middle, and I expect Fisch to hammer the power runs and inside zones. Against Maryland, Fisch used one-back and multiple tight end formations often, largely eschewing spread receiver sets and I-formation use. The Hurricanes' best offensive player and potential star, Lamar Miller, carried 18 times against Maryland for 119 yards, 6.6. yards per rush, and showcased his explosiveness on a 41-yard touchdown gallop.

Based off early returns, the Miami passing game seems predicated on concept packaging and simple play-action. Concept packaging works by placing one separate route combination on each side, then allowing the quarterback to choose between the two after reading the defense's coverage. Fisch packaged double slants, a route combination strong against Cover 2 and man coverage, with slant/shoot, a route combination that attacks Cover 3. It's a fairly common combination and one that's easy for young quarterbacks to grasp.

Miami's play-action game was quite rudimentary on Labor Day, too, mainly combining posts and drags to stretch a defense both vertically and horizontally.

I'm wary of small sample size, however. With a young, temporary starter, Fisch may have distilled his playbook. Jacory Harris' return should enable more variety.

The Hurricane Defense

New defensive coordinator Mark D'Onofrio brings an established track-record from Temple, where he oversaw an impressive change in the Owls' defensive performance. Upon his arrival, Temple ranked last nationally in scoring defense. Five years later, D'Onofrio had elevated the Owls to 16th, giving up less than 20 points per game.

D'Onofrio's Temple defenses offer us a peak at his philosophy. Steeped in Penn State's 4-3 Over, Cover 3 tradition, D'Onofrio and Golden, former Nittany Lion linebackers, ran a similar system, emphasizing a four-man pass rush and tight run support. They did not blitz much, and opposing offenses generally needed long, time-consuming drives to score.

Lost amidst the offensive turmoil and coaching turnover, Miami's defense played well in 2010, despite some breakdowns in high-profile games. Bill Connelly's S&P+ system, which measures consistency and explosiveness, ranked the Hurricanes 5th nationally in success rate last season, meaning they stopped opposing offenses from gaining the yards needed for a successful play as consistently as any defense in the country. Whether D'Onofrio can elevate, or even maintain, Miami's surprisingly strong defensive performance will depend on how well he can integrate new personnel into a new system.

The closer Miami gets to the ball, the more talent they have. Like their offensive line, Miami's defensive line is strongest up the middle. D'Onofrio will rotate five players into two spots throughout the game, but starters Marcus Forston (6''3, 300) and Darius Smith (6''2, 360) provide considerable size and girth, and Forston has turned into one of the premier defensive tackles in the entire ACC.

At linebacker, undersized fireball Sean Spence has returned from a one-game suspension to man the middle. Seniors Ramon Buchanan, who tangoed with a cop this off-season, and Jordan Futch hold down the outsides. Futch had never started before this season, and he's a definite weakspot for the Hurricanes. Futch had major issues containing Maryland's outside runs and perimeter screens, and the Terrapins gashed Miami repeatedly.

It's unlikely that Ohio State will face much man coverage, because Miami cornerbacks Brandon McGee and Michael Williams need protection. Like Futch, they struggled against Maryland and often lost leverage in both run support and pass coverage, allowing Maryland's receivers to slip behind them and maneuver into open, uncontested space.

I expect D'Onofrio to play a Cover 3 shell and rely on his athletic front four for pressure. This should be welcome news for Joe Bauserman, who has trouble throwing against tight man coverage, but it will limit Ohio State's vertical passing and big play potential, leading to a low-scoring, conservative, perhaps even boring offensive game.

Predictions