Week 3 rankings
by talonk on Sep 19, 2011 7:52 AM EDT
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PrintWith Week 3 in the books, I finally have enough data to provide a Top 40 list.
Again, please remember, this is not who I feel are the best teams in the nation (if this was based on opinion, this would be a much different list). This is my analysis of teams’ record wise taking into account road wins, out of conference (OOC) strength, and conference strength as well.
As we only have 3 weeks of data, the numbers are still a bit skewed as most games have been OOC only (only 22 conference games total so far). Additionally, some teams have only played 2 games instead of 3. And additional factors as well. As the season progresses, teams in power conferences will start to move up as playing in-conference opponents who are strong will increase the overall totals.
Definitions: Team … W/L (both self-explanatory) … Score – If the number is positive (ie higher than the win total) this school has played a tough schedule. Usually, early in the season, less than 20 teams in the Top 60 have positive numbers. This is mainly due to weak OOC schedules, including FCS schools. If the number is negative, it is subtracted from the win total. So if it is a 3 win team that has a score of 2.3, then they have played a fairly weak schedule, and if their number is below 2.0, they have played a bad schedule so far.
Onto the list …..
|
|
School |
W/L |
Score |
Comment |
|
1 |
Texas |
3-0 |
3.040 |
Looked shaky at first, but will stay high as Big12 is highest rated conference right now |
|
2 |
Michigan |
3-0 |
3.010 |
This ranking will all depend on how the OOC schools stay ranked in their respective conferences |
|
3 |
USC |
3-0 |
3.000 |
No tough games, but all BCS schools so far |
|
4 |
Oklahoma St |
3-0 |
2.960 |
Has a good shot at Big12 crown |
|
5 |
South Florida |
3-0 |
2.700 |
Has looked good so far in a stronger BigEast than in years past |
|
6 |
FIU |
3-0 |
2.685 |
Will not stay high, even if they stay undefeated as the Sun Belt and WAC will vie for worst conferences this year |
|
7 |
West Virginia |
3-0 |
2.650 |
Tough LSU game this week will not hurt them all that much |
|
8 |
Clemson |
3-0 |
2.590 |
Finally got some of that SEC monkey off their back |
|
9 |
North Carolina |
3-0 |
2.560 |
GA Tech will be a tough road game |
|
10 |
Florida |
3-0 |
2.550 |
Kentucky game won’t help this ranking much |
|
11 |
Ohio U |
3-0 |
2.530 |
Another school that will drop once conference games start; but MAC looks improved from past few years |
|
12 |
Illinois |
3-0 |
2.500 |
Dark horse candidate for B1G title game |
|
13 |
Iowa St |
3-0 |
2.435 |
Impressive so far, but Big12 looks nasty this year |
|
13 |
LSU |
3-0 |
2.435 |
Will rise up with a win, won’t fall too far with a loss |
|
15 |
Oklahoma |
2-0 |
2.405 |
Impressive road win keeps them high even with only 2 games played so far |
|
16 |
Nebraska |
3-0 |
2.390 |
All depends on the gnarly B1G schedule |
|
17 |
Alabama |
3-0 |
2.385 |
Sneaky Arkansas game this week before the Swamp game |
|
18 |
California |
3-0 |
2.380 |
Should be unscathed until Oregon, OSC, Utah gauntlet |
|
19 |
San Diego St |
3-0 |
2.370 |
Leads the MWC to date .. will only help Michigan numbers |
|
20 |
Houston |
3-0 |
2.365 |
Almost blew their BCS shot last week |
|
21 |
South Carolina |
3-0 |
2.360 |
Navy could have helped put a dent in their season |
|
22 |
Baylor |
2-0 |
2.250 |
RGIII has been on fire |
|
23 |
Georgia Tech |
3-0 |
2.230 |
My dark horse ACC title team this year |
|
24 |
Virginia Tech |
3-0 |
2.210 |
The favorite in the ACC |
|
25 |
Texas A&M |
2-0 |
2.160 |
Next 2 weeks will make or break them |
|
26 |
Stanford |
3-0 |
2.080 |
Should be 7-0 going into the Coliseum |
|
27 |
Wyoming |
3-0 |
2.060 |
Surprising 3-0 start, but 2 FCS schools will not help at all |
|
28 |
Louisville |
2-1 |
2.010 |
BigEast has been fairly good so far |
|
29 |
Auburn |
2-1 |
1.945 |
Has their luck finally run out? |
|
30 |
Utah |
2-1 |
1.940 |
Rolled BYU … next toughie are the Sun Devils |
|
31 |
Rice |
1-1 |
1.905 |
Baylor should drop them next week |
|
32 |
Vanderbilt |
3-0 |
1.900 |
Can they upset the Visor this week? |
|
33 |
Arizona St |
2-1 |
1.850 |
USC is up next |
|
34 |
Wisconsin |
3-0 |
1.840 |
Ore St is really hurting their ranking |
|
34 |
SMU |
2-1 |
1.840 |
Memphis game will drop them |
|
36 |
Notre Dame |
1-2 |
1.795 |
Toughest SOS to date boosts them this high |
|
37 |
Maryland |
1-1 |
1.780 |
Will Temple put up a fight after the heartbreaker with the Nits? |
|
38 |
Iowa |
2-1 |
1.770 |
They will be kicking themselves for the Iowa St loss all year |
|
39 |
Penn St |
2-1 |
1.760 |
Eastern Michigan will drop them out of the Top 40 |
|
39 |
Tulsa |
1-2 |
1.760 |
Oklahoma, Okla St and Boise St? That is plain nasty! |
As of right now, the conferences are ranked as follows (1.25 is the highest, 0.75 is the worst): Big12 (1.25), BigEast (1.12), ACC (1.09), SEC (1.07), B1G (1.07), Pac12 (1.04), MWC (0.98), CUSA (0.95), MAC (0.91), SunBelt (0.76), WAC (0.75). I don’t foresee even the mighty SEC overtaking the Big12 as top conference this year as the Big12 only has 2 losses so far. They would have to have a dreadful week 3 of OOC games to slip out of the number one spot.
And now the bottom 20 ….
|
|
School |
W/L |
Score |
Comment |
|
101 |
Colorado St |
2-1 |
0.820 |
Worst 2 win team in CFB |
|
102 |
UAB |
0-2 |
0.785 |
East Carolina will not be an easy road game |
|
103 |
Indiana |
1-2 |
0.780 |
Ooooo FCS win .. nice |
|
104 |
Middle Tenn St |
0-2 |
0.695 |
They will regret losing to Purdue |
|
105 |
Ole Miss |
1-2 |
0.690 |
Will they end up worse than Vandy this year? Likely |
|
106 |
LA-Monroe |
1-2 |
0.655 |
Should be 0-4 next week |
|
107 |
Duke |
1-2 |
0.640 |
Nice comeback against BC |
|
108 |
Central Michigan |
1-2 |
0.560 |
Sparty will be ticked this week, look out |
|
108 |
Hawaii |
1-2 |
0.560 |
Lose to UNLV? This is where you end up |
|
110 |
Kent St |
0-3 |
0.540 |
FCS victim this week, will they be snake-bit like a few others? |
|
111 |
Buffalo |
1-2 |
0.500 |
Will be a rough year |
|
112 |
Oregon St |
0-2 |
0.420 |
Unless they get healthy, they might go winless |
|
113 |
San Jose St |
0-3 |
0.350 |
New Mex St is their only shot at a W this year |
|
114 |
Miami OH |
0-2 |
0.320 |
From first to worst? |
|
115 |
Memphis |
1-2 |
0.235 |
Been hanging down here for a few years |
|
116 |
UNLV |
0-3 |
0.200 |
Found my first error .. will correct this next week |
|
117 |
New Mexico |
0-3 |
0.060 |
Another long year for the Lobos |
|
118 |
Akron |
0-3 |
-0.350 |
FCS foe will be there only W all year |
|
119 |
Boston College |
0-3 |
-0.360 |
Lose to Duke (who lost to an FCS foe) drops you this far |
|
120 |
Western Kentucky |
0-3 |
-0.450 |
One of the worst FBS school a few years running, losing to an FCS foe will likely ensure them at the bottom most of the year |
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