Analyzing the Enemy: Deceptive Offense and the Colorado Buffaloes

Following five disappointing seasons, Dan Hawkins' reign ended on November 9th, when Colorado's administration terminated his contract and began a coaching search. Enter Jon Embree. A former Colorado player and assistant, Embree left the Washington Redskins' staff and returned to his alma mater, hoping to restore a program that has fallen from college football's elite and descended into athletic pauperism.

Colorado's last winning season came in 2005, under Gary Barnett, and their last bowl win came a season earlier, against UTEP, in the delightfully titled EV1.net Houston Bowl. Embree faces a difficult task transforming a roster depleted of talent-- Colorado has not ranked in Rivals' Top 40 since 2008, this year's senior class-- into a competitive Pac 12 team.

Early returns have been encouraging, albeit in a relative sense. After losing to Hawaii in Embree's first game, Colorado battled California for 60 minutes, taking the Golden Bears into overtime before falling. Buffalo quarterback Tyler Hansen set a new team passing record, 474 yards, and sophomore receiver Paul Richardson caught 11 passes for 284 yards, breaking the school's receiving yards record and making an early case for the Biletnikoff Award.

Last week, Colorado beat Colorado State, 28-14, a victory that bolstered the bravado of at least one Buffalo. "This gives us a lot of confidence," CU linebacker Josh Hartigan said after the game. "With confidence, you build momentum. We are ready to play Ohio State."

Deceptive Offense

Switching offensive styles can be painful, but Colorado had every reason to change. Hawkins' spread passing attack failed to match the prodigious output of other Big 12 teams throughout his tenure, ranking 10th within the conference in total yards and 9th in scoring offense his final season. Embree brings a pro-style system from the NFL, and unlike other NFL-to-college transitions, this one seems to be working. The Buffs are averaging 5.7 yards per play, over half a yard more than they did last season. Small sample size demands that we view the improvement with caution, but it's clear that the new Colorado offense possesses some spark.

The Colorado passing attack runs through two players, Tyler Hansen and Paul Richardson. Hansen, a senior, ruptured his spleen against Texas Tech in 2010, cutting his season short and ending any bowl hopes Colorado held. His return gives Embree an experienced, steady presence. Hansen's QB Score has jumped from -402 a year ago to positive 454, an almost 900-point swing, which places him among the best quarterbacks Ohio State will face this season.

So should Ohio State fans worry? Not necessarily.

QB Score emphasizes raw production above everything else, rewarding yards gained and punishing turnovers, so efficiency is often undervalued in the final tally. Hansen's poor completion percentage has not been an issue yet, because he's passed for big yards and not turned the ball over.

Hanson ranks 9th nationally in plays of 20+ yards, and six of his seven passing touchdowns fall under the big play category, obscuring inefficiency. Without the big plays, Hansen's production plummets and his completion percentage becomes an issue. Ohio State's main defensive goal, then, should be limiting Colorado's explosive passing attack.

The West Coast Buffalo

Embree's offense contains all the hallmarks of other West Coast systems the Buckeyes have faced in recent years. Mark Whipple's Miami Hurricane offense, in particular, seems like a good analogue to the Buffaloes. Heavy personnel groupings are the norm-- two backs, one tight end (21); one tight, two backs (12)-- and the passing game is timing based, coordinating the receivers' routes with the quarterback's drop steps.

In the video below, notice Hansen's timing. He sees Paul Richardson's clean, inside release against man coverage, takes a small hitch on his fifth step, and hits the post for a touchdown.

Richardson, it cannot be overstated, is Colorado's best offensive threat and probable best player, period. He's bailed Hansen out multiple times this season, like on the below play, where the cornerback has inside leverage and a track on the ball, only to have Richardson slip behind him and steal it away.

As with Toledo, Colorado's skill position is a two-man game. Richardson and tailback Rodney Stewart, a Columbus native, account for 73% of the offensive yards. Stewart's averaged less than 4 yards per carry this year, a poor figure, but the West Coast passing offense requires tailback involvement, and Stewart's tied with Richardson for receptions. Embree especially likes running screens with Stewart.

The Buffalo Defense

New defensive coordinator Greg Brown brings a 4-3, aggressive zone defense with him from Arizona, where he co-coordinated the defense under head coach Mike Stoops. Last season's Colorado defense ranked 64th in S&P+, a statistic developed by Bill Connelly that measures a defense's prevention of "successful" offensive plays and explosive gains.

Colorado's starting front seven is light, the second lightest in the Pac 12. Much research has been done proving that size matters in the front seven, existing as a necessary condition for defensive success. There's a lot of young talent on Colorado's defensive line, but it's light and unproven, a combination that may bode well for the Buffs' future but does not for the present.

In 2010, Colorado struggled against the pass, ranking 87th in S&P+ and 110th in passing yards per game. They've lost first-round pick Jimmy Smith and two-year starter Jalil Smith, leaving their pass defense even more vulnerable. Against California, Colorado's only opponent comparable in talent to Ohio State, Colorado surrendered 270 yards through the air, losing on a fade pass.

Whether Joe Bauserman or Braxton Miller play Saturday, or the schizophrenic platoon combination continues, Ohio State should find offensive success, even with an unclear passing philosophy. There's too much talent on Ohio State's offense, and too little size on Colorado's defense, for the Bucks to not at least match California's production. Of course, there was too much talent on Ohio State's offense, too, for last weekend's abomination.

Predictions

Kyle: Ohio State 41 - Colorado 10

Tyler: Ohio State 34 - Colorado 17

Ben: Ohio State 23 - Colorado 14

Chip: Ohio State 28 - Colorado 3