Week 4 Rankings

by talonk on Sep 26, 2011 12:59 PM EDT

The B1G had an ok week, the ACC struggled and the BigEast escaped a few MACrifices.

A few notes: To offset the disparity of games played so far, any team with only 3 games gets a 0.5 boost (they haven’t won or lost that fourth game yet). Once the season gets to the seventh or eighth week, that bonus will be dropped as 75+% teams will be on the same footing.

Definitions: Team … W/L (both self-explanatory) … +-/ - movement from last week … Score – If the number is positive (ie higher than the win total) this school has played a tough schedule. Usually, early in the season, less than 20 teams in the Top 60 have positive numbers. This is mainly due to weak OOC schedules, including FCS schools. If the number is negative, it is subtracted from the win total. So if it is a 4 win team that has a score of 3.3, then they have played a fairly weak schedule, and if their number is below 3.0, they have played a bad schedule so far.

As an FYI, Ohio St is currently #55 with a score of 2.080.

Onto the list …..

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
1	Oklahoma St	4-0	4.250	+3	Excellent road win has them on top for now
2	Michigan	4-0	4.100	0	Minnesota will drop their ranking a little this week
3	South Carolina	4-0	4.070	+18	Should hold close to steady no matter the result of the Auburn game
4	Alabama	4-0	3.950	+13	I expect a jump to the top spot with a win this week
5	South Florida	4-0	3.910	0	Pitt will not help their rankings this week
6	Nebraska	4-0	3.780	+10	Big first B1G game this week
7	LSU	4-0	3.740	+6	Kentucky game will drop them a few spots
8	Clemson	4-0	3.630	0	Huge matchup with VA Tech this week; Inside track to ACC title game right now
9	Virginia Tech	4-0	3.550	+13	Win or lose, I don’t expect too much movement here
10	Texas	3-0	3.500	-9	Is Iowa St for real?
11	Georgia Tech	4-0	3.400	+12	I like their chance for a ACC title game
12	Illinois	4-0	3.360	0	Northwestern should give them a good test right off the bat
13	Florida	4-0	3.335	-3	Alabama will prove if they are for real
14	Oklahoma	2-0	3.250	+1	Ball St game won’t help this ranking at the end of the year
15	Boise St	3-0	3.190	+27	Old friends the next two weeks: Nevada, Fresno St, but WAC is terrible this year
16	Iowa St	3-0	3.120	-3	Texas game will be show if they deserve this ranking
17	North Carolina	3-1	3.050	-8	Sneaky road game to East Carolina this week
18	FIU	3-1	3.050	-13	Conference loss starts their free fall; Duke up next
19	West Virginia	3-1	3.030	-12	South FLA should be their only competition in BigEast this year
20	Baylor	3-0	3.020	+2	Surprising Kansas St is on tap this week
21	Penn St	3-1	3.010	+18	I thought they’d drop with a win last week, they didn’t; Indiana should be a pushover as well
22	USC	3-1	3.000	-19	Tough loss in the desert
23	Stanford	3-0	2.990	+3	UCLA shouldn’t give them much trouble
24	LA-Lafayette	3-1	2.880	+31	Road win in conference against top team jumps them this week; but they should free fall as well; SunBelt is not good
25	Arizona St	3-1	2.850	+8	Nice win over Trojans, unfortunately Ore St will drop them some this week
26	Auburn	3-1	2.810	+3	I think they fall down around 40 or so after losing to South Carolina this week
27	Houston	4-0	2.800	-7	They will only move up if teams above them start to slide back
28	Washington	3-1	2.760	+33	Tough roadie in Utah this week
29	Texas A&M	2-1	2.670	-4	Hogs up next; should be a fun game
30	Vanderbilt	3-1	2.660	+2	They get a week off to prep for Bama; won’t help
31	Notre Dame	2-2	2.640	+5	Will the Boilers shock the Domers .. probably not
32	Oregon	3-1	2.580	+11	They should continue to slowly move up
33	San Diego St	3-1	2.560	-14	A week off to prep for TCU; they may slide down until that game
34	Wyoming	3-1	2.540	-7	Bye this week; I think this is way too high for them
34	Texas Tech	3-0	2.510	+17	Kansas should bump them down slighlty
36	Wisconsin	4-0	2.510	-2	Huskers will provide a much needed boost to their profile
37	Utah	2-1	2.490	-7	Huskies should be a fun game to match up with
38	Syracuse	3-1	2.480	+3	Did tough game with Toledo expose them?
39	California	3-1	2.460	-21	Week off will drop them and Oregon should finish their stay in Top 50 for awhile next week
40	Tennessee	2-1	2.370	+5	Buffalo won’t help much in next week’s rankings

Dropped from Top 40 this week: Rice, Ohio U, SMU, Maryland, Iowa, Louisville, Tulsa

As of right now, the conferences are ranked as follows (1.25 is the highest, 0.75 is the worst): Big12 (1.25), BigEast (1.11), B1G (1.10), SEC (1.07), ACC (1.06), Pac12 (1.05), MWC (1.00), CUSA (0.91), MAC (0.90), SunBelt (0.79), WAC (0.75). The Big12 will be the #1 conference this year, rankings wise. At worst they will be 26-4 in non-con; and that is with a decent slate of OOC games as well. Will be interesting to see how the middle of the pack shakes out. Not much separating them middle BCS conferences.

And now the bottom 20 ….

	School	W/L	Score	+/-	Comment
101	UNLV	1-3	0.830	+15	Grudge match against Wolf Pack in 2 weeks
102	NC State	2-2	0.800	-13	2 FCS wins doesn’t help much
103	Middle Tenn St	0-3	0.740	+1	Pillow fight with Memphis this week
104	Idaho	1-3	0.730	-10	Pillow fight with Virginia this week
105	LA Tech	1-3	0.640	-13	Hawaii on deck
106	Indiana	1-3	0.620	-3	I honestly can’t see them winning another game
106	Ole Miss	1-3	0.620	-1	Two WAC games give them a chance for a few wins
108	LA-Monroe	1-3	0.610	-2	Bye week might give them a boost
108	Memphis	1-3	0.550	+7	Pillow fight with Middle Tenn St this week
110	Central Michigan	1-3	0.430	-2	Three wins tops for these guys
111	UAB	0-3	0.420	-9	Should be 0-5 until matchup with Tulsa
112	Akron	1-3	0.350	+6	Pillow fight with East Michigan this week
113	Oregon St	0-3	0.330	-1	Progress last week, but still on track to be winless
114	New Mex St	1-3	0.295	-31	Losing to the Spartans hurts a lot
115	Buffalo	1-3	0.260	-4	Volunteers should crush them
116	Boston College	0-3	0.250	+3	Can they get a second win this year?
117	Minnesota	1-3	0.230	-19	An FCS loss drops you like a rock
118	Western Kentucky	0-3	0.210	+2	Can they escape the bottom 5 this year?
119	Miami OH	0-3	-0.050	-5	From first to worst in one season .. ouch
120	New Mexico	0-4	-0.060	-3	Hey look, another team with an FCS loss .. sigh

Graduated from Bottom 20: Colorado St, Duke, Hawaii, Kent St, San Jose St. I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of them make a repeat appearance though.

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To expand on the B1G, here is their rankings, 1-12:

2. Michigan 4-0, 4.100
6. Nebraska 4-0, 3.780
12. Illinois 4-0, 3.360
21. Penn St 3-1, 3.010
36. Wisconsin 4-0, 2.510
43. Iowa 3-1, 2.340
55 Ohio St 3-1, 2.080
60. Mich St 3-1, 1.970
82. Purdue 2-1, 1.440
94. Northewestern 2-1, 1.160
106. Indiana 1-3, 0.620
117. Minesota 1-3, 0.230

by talonk on Sep 26, 2011 5:13 PM EDT reply actions