Analyzing the Enemy: Michigan State Spartans

Mark Dantonio's fifth season as Michigan State head coach began with a tepid performance against FCS school Youngstown State, and then hit an early nadir when the Spartans lost to Notre Dame in week three. Against the Irish, Michigan State's offense stuttered, scoring only 13 points a week after Denard Robinson and the Wolverines tore through the Irish secondary.

The Only Colors, SB Nation's insightful Spartan website, offered this commentary after the Notre Dame disappointment: 

"Through three games, there has been a startlingly low amount of big plays from the Spartans. The first two games, I chalked it up to vanilla play calling, but after Dan Roushar threw the kitchen sink out onto the field, and didn't get a single play over 30 yards to show for it, we maybe need to be concerned about this."

Last weekend, facing Central Michigan, the Spartan offense returned, piling 481 yards and 45 points on an outgunned Chippewa defense. Still, Ohio State's defense will be the sternest test yet for a Spartan offense still adapting to new offensive coordinator Dan Roushar, who replaced Don Treadwell this offseason after Treadwell received the Miami (OH) head coaching job.

Perhaps the most dominant undercurrent to this Spartan squad is their surprising 2010 season, in which they went 11-2, shared a Big Ten championship with one, formerly two teams, and then stumbled into an Alabama buzzsaw in the Capital One Bowl, losing 49-7. The Spartans were not, of course, as bad as their one-game drunken stupor belies, but they probably weren't as good as their 12-game regular season suggests, either.

SB Nation's Bill Connelly provided this statistic in his Spartan preview.

Michigan State in Close Games During Mark Dantonio's Tenure:
2007: 2-6
2008: 2-1
2009: 2-4
2010: 4-0

The Spartan Offense

Senior Kirk Cousins may be the top quarterback in the Big Ten; certainly, he is the best pro-style passer. In 2010, he ranked third in completion percentage and passing yards, behind graduated Scott Tolzien and injured Dan Persa, and fourth in returning QB Score, following three dual-threat quarterbacks, Denard Robinson, Taylor Martinez, and Nathan Scheelhaase.

Cousins, a three-year starter, lost his favorite receiving target, Mark Dell, to graduation, along with tight end Charlie Gantt. B.J. Cunningham, who led the Spartans in touchdowns last season, has replaced Dell as Cousins' choice weapon, averaging 7 catches and over 100 yards per game.

Two seniors, Keshawn Martin and Keith Nicol, fill out the wide receiver rotation, but they've been secondary options so far, each catching fewer than ten passes. Joining them, sophomore tight end Dion Sims, an athletic freak Ohio State recruited in the 2009 class, has held a starting but minimal role. Michigan State's passing game, which had nine players with double-digit receptions last season, has turned into a slanted show, with 30% of the catches and 40% of the yards belonging to Cunningham.

Two tailbacks, Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell, drive the Spartan rushing train. A third, Larry Caper, has resumed his spot tailback role, replacing the two in certain situations and providing a fresh burst from the bench. Baker led the team in rushing last season, averaging 5.81 yard per carry and scoring 13 touchdowns, but he's fallen behind Bell, a sophomore from Groveport, who has outproduced him by 1.39 yards per carry.

Michigan State's offensive line resembles a hospital ward. They've lost right tackle Skyler Burkland to a gruesome leg injury, and center Blake Treadwell missed the Central Michigan game due to an MCL scare. Dantonio expects him to return this weekend, but he will be limited. They'll be without guard Jared McGaha, too, who injured his MCL in practice the week before Notre Dame.

Power and Pro, the Spartan Scheme

Out of every team on Ohio State's schedule, none may use motion and counters as often as Michigan State. Motion is a constant feature, and it's used to both detect man coverage and change the numbers on each side of the field.

Nick Saban will use this tape to teach defending counters and the running game.  Alabama's linebackers read the pulling guard and fill the gaps quickly, stuffing the Spartan rush before it passes the line of scrimmage.

Michigan State's passing game, against Alabama at least, focused on short routes and pattern combinations strong against man coverage. Ohio State's defense, the best Michigan State has faced since the Crimson Tide, should see a similar gameplan, in theory if not specifics.

Again, we see motion. Keith Nicol (7) runs from the boundary, the side closest to the hashmarks, to the field and settles on the inside of Mark Dell. The two then run the same route, slants, and Dell gets a clean inside release against the Bama corner.

Double slants is an effective use of space, and it's good against both man coverage and Cover 2. We will see it.

Mesh, another play we may see, combines two receivers running shallow crossing routes. A staple of the Michigan State offense, mesh horizontally stretches the the defense and works well against man coverage. Here, Kirk Cousins tosses a pass to Keith Nichols (7) after Nichols loses his defensive back

The Spartan Defense

Mark Dantonio's 4-3 under, zone-blitz defense should be familiar to Buckeye fans. We've watched the same basic system over the past ten seasons, dating back to Dantonio's time as Ohio State defensive coordinator from 2001-03.

Since his stopover in Columbus, Dantonio has not strayed far from his tendencies. Rather than adding the various wrinkles current defensive coordinator Jim Heacock has applied to the Buckeye scheme, Dantonio and Spartan defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi have maintained a largely traditional defense that plays Cover 2 and Cover 4, occasionally dabbling in man coverage, with an extreme focus on preventing big plays.

Bill Connelly's "Bend-Don't-Break" statistic, which compares success rate (consistent gains) against points per play (explosive gains), corroborates Dantonio's stated philosophy. The Spartans bend more than the national average, but they don't give up long, explosive gains. To score on Michigan State, you must string many successful plays together, which may be difficult for young Braxton Miller and the patchwork Ohio State offense.

Notre Dame found great success early against the Spartans, producing both their highest success rate and points per play totals on first downs. The Fighting Irish aggressively attacked a secondary with two new starters-- safety Isaiah Lewis and corner Darquez Dennard-- and reaped the benefits. Ohio State lacks Brian Kelly's passing game, but the Buckeyes could still benefit from a more varied offense on first down. It's always good to be ahead of the chains, but it's absolutely vital to do so against a Mark Dantonio defense.

Score Predictions

Ben: Ohio State 24 - Michigan State 17

Kyle: Ohio State 27 - Michigan State 14

Ross: Ohio State 27 - Michigan State 17

Chip: Michigan State 21 - Ohio State 17

Tyler: Michigan State 20 - Ohio State 13

I don't believe Ohio State can score enough points to win, period. Michigan State will struggle on offense, too, but Kirk Cousins will do enough to outscore an anemic Buckeye offense.