Analysis of the Enemy: Toledo Rockets

For two seasons, Tim Beckman served on Jim Tressel's Ohio State staff. Now he returns to Columbus to face a Tressel-less Ohio State, hoping to earn a signature victory for a Toledo program on the rebound. Beckman's Rockets have undeniably improved since his hiring in 2008, leaping from 5-7 his first season to 8-5 and a bowl berth last year.

Beckman, whose coaching mentors also include Urban Meyer and Pat Dye, so impressed the Toledo administration with his immediate success that the university rewarded him with a two-year contract extension this summer, citing both his dedication to winning and developing athletes as people.

Like all turnarounds in college football, Toledo's ascent is built on recruiting success. As Bill Connelly writes, "For the most part, MAC teams recruit at almost the same level. Looking at the five-year recruiting rank, you see that seven MAC teams rank between 86th and 97th and another four rank between 104th and 112th. That leaves, basically, two outliers: Buffalo (120th ... not that far behind that second tier) and Toledo (68th)."

Beckman has drawn upon his contacts in the Ohio high school community to out-recruit MAC competitors at a steady clip. Rivals.com rated the average Toledo recruit the past two seasons about a quarter point higher than anyone else in the MAC, which makes them loosely competitive with two Big Ten squads, Purdue and Indiana. Whereas Rob Ianello's Akron squad was filled with young talent greater than the average MAC team, Beckman's Rockets are full of the best young talent in the entire conference. And unlike Ianello, Beckman has already done something with that talent.

Former Toledo head coach Tom Amstutz ran a pro-style offense from 2001-2008, but the transition to new offensive coordinator Matt Campbell's spread offense was surprisingly easy and effective. Toledo jumped from 88th nationally in scoring in Amstutz's last year to 36th in Campbell's first, an improvement that slid backwards in 2010 with the graduation of four year starting quarterback Aaron Opelt.

Replacing Opelt, junior Austin Danton played well until an injury against Eastern Michigan knocked him out and Glenville graduate Terrance Owens replaced him. Despite Owens outperforming Danton in some key categories, Beckman named Danton the starting quarterback for Toledo in 2011, although he did not rule out using Owens in certain packages.

The return to Danton signals Toledo's hope to recapture the offensive style they had with Aaron Opelt, who sliced-and-diced MAC defenses with his arm. As the better passer, Danton allows Toledo to run the full gamut of their spread passing attack, which is at its best when distributing the ball to electric skill position players Eric Page and Adonis Thomas.

Page, a junior from Springfield, Ohio, flew under the recruiting radar in 2009, garnering attention only from MAC schools. Upon arrival at Toledo, he impressed quickly, staking out a starting position and leading Toledo in receptions and yards.  Last season, he improved upon those numbers, hauling in 66 more passes than the next closest receiver,  running back Adonis Thomas, a 5-10, 185 lbs. sparkplug who ran for 1,098 yards on an excellent 6.27 yards per carry.

A two-man game in 2010, Toledo's offense must diversify for the Rockets to return to their Opelt-era success. At 40% target rate, Page was the most targeted player in college football last season, both a testament to his skill and an indictment of the Rockets' other options.

Surely aware of Page's importance, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock will craft a gameplan around stopping him and forcing the ball elsewhere. That will leave seniors Tim Cortazzo (6-1, 198 lbs.) and Kenny Stafford (6''4, 204), sophomores Bernard Reedy (5''9, 170) and James Green (6''3, 200), and Illinois-transfer Cordale Scott (6''3, 215) as key players on Saturday.

Green and Scott held multiple BCS offers when recruited out of high school, but each ended up at Toledo for different reasons, ranging from poor test scores to unhappiness at their original choice.

The Rockets' Defense

As with the offense, Toledo's defense has improved under Beckman, but its trajectory has actually been more dramatic. Ranked 95th in total defense and 116th in scoring in 2009, last year's Rockets jumped to 56th and 73rd respectively, marking their biggest improvements in run defense and limiting big plays.The Rockets' only weakness, really, came in the passing game, where they struggled to get off the field, ranking last in the MAC.

Oddly, though, the Rockets were excellent at limiting individual gains through the air, holding their opponents to 6.6 yards per pass, a figure that places them 36th best in the country. It makes sense given Beckman's philosophy, however. As defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, he used a base 4-3 defense-- often switching to a 3-3 in the pass-happy Big 12-- and ran a multiple zone-blitz coverage scheme not unlike the one Ohio State ran under Jim Tressel, and continues to run today.

Beckman's basic strategy is simple: force an opponent to complete many successful passes in a row, prevent big plays, and stop the run. Toledo's growth as a defense will depend on their progress in these areas, but they do appear to be trending in the right direction. Last season, the Rockets ranked 3rd best in the MAC at preventing plays of 30+ yards, 2nd best at preventing plays of 40+ yards, and only gave up one 50+ yard play the entire season.

What does this mean for Ohio State? Nothing, if the talent advantage holds up. For all the good recruiting Beckman has done, his team is still far outmatched by the Buckeyes.  What Beckman can do, and what Ohio State should prepare for, are creative zone blitzes designed to flummox the inexperienced Buckeye quarterbacks, Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller.

Steeler Zone Blitz

Ross has done extensive work highlighting Ohio State's own zone-blitz usage, and here we look within ourselves for a preview of what we will see from Toledo, the Steeler Zone Blitz. (For more on zone blitzes in general-- and heaping praise of Dick LeBeau, a Buckeye-- I recommend Smart Football.)

A creative means of applying pressure, the Steeler Zone Blitz brings five defenders while dropping six, dividing the coverage field into three vertical slices, as many zone blitzes do.

Three defensive linemen stunt back to the weakside, away from the tight end, and two linebackers attack the tight end's gaps, forcing him to make a decision and hopefully allowing one to slip into the backfield untouched.

Although it's designed to cause havoc, Steeler remains a surprisingly safe call. Six defenders in coverage leaves the defense with a numbers advantage, and pattern-matching the underneath coverages disrupts hot routes.

Everywhere Beckman has gone since Ohio State, he's used Steeler, and it remains the perfect blitz for befuddling inexperienced quarterbacks without exposing the defense to unnecessary risk. How Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller handle the pressure, and how Ohio State's blockers pick it up, may determine the odds of a Toledo upset.

Score Predictions

Ben: Ohio State 38 - Toledo 17

Chip: Ohio State 35 - Toledo 17

Smith: Ohio State 34 - Toledo 13

Kyle: Ohio State 31 - Toledo 14

Tyler: Ohio State 27 - Toledo 13

Average: Ohio State 33 - Toledo 15