Analyzing the Enemy
Ohio State Unranked In Early ESPN Top 25
Mark Schlabach, ESPN's consistently dull college football writer, released his annual January Top 25 earlier today, taking his first stab at predicting the top teams for the 2012 season. Ohio State is unranked, which is a case of myopia, I think. There are some issues on the offensive line and at linebacker, but the struggles of the 2011 season can be almost wholly attributed to the unique coaching situation and the uneven quarterback situation. With large improvement in both categories, it seems likely that Ohio State will finish in the top 25 in Urban Meyer's first season.
1. LSU Tigers
2. USC Trojans
3. Oregon Ducks
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
5. Oklahoma Sooners
As valid a top five as any at this early juncture. LSU retains most of their starting talent and may even improve at quarterback with Jordan Jefferson's graduation. When Matt Barkley announced his return to USC, it assured the Trojans of a top five rankings. Oregon, Alabama, and Oklahoma all return talent, but Oregon still has a significant NCAA investigation taking place, which could upset the situation, as Buckeye fans know only too well.
6. Georgia Bulldogs
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
8. Florida State Seminoles
9. Michigan State Spartans
10. South Carolina Gamecocks
Florida State and West Virginia seem like good bets to continue their bowl success. Dana Holgorsen, on the heels of a dominant Orange Bowl performance, will have a full spring and fall to teach the nuances of his Air-Raid offense, and Florida State's 2011 recruiting class, brimming over with talent, will enter their second year in the program. Mark Stoops, Florida State defensive coordinator, had one of the best defenses in the country this season; if Fisher can improve his offense, Florida State will be a legitimate national title contender.
Penn State Will Hire Bill O'Brien As New Head Coach
According to ESPN, the prolonged Penn State coaching search has come to an end. Bill O'Brien, offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots, will become the new head coach in Happy Valley, replacing the disgraced Joe Paterno, who was fired as part of the fallout from a child abuse cover-up.
O'Brien is 42 years old and has spent fourteen years coaching college athletes, from 1993 to 2006. Like Paterno, O'Brien graduated from Brown and began his coaching career at his alma mater. O'Brien then moved on to Georgia Tech, where he coached quarterbacks and running backs before coordinating the Yellow Jacket offense for two seasons, 2001 and 2002. In 2007, after coaching at Maryland and Duke following a break with Georgia Tech, O'Brien became a Patriot offensive assistant. Bill Belichick promoted O'Brien to wide receivers coach the next year. When Josh McDaniels left New England for the Denver Broncos, O'Brien received another promotion, this time replacing McDaniels as quarterbacks coach.
The 2011 season is the first that O'Brien has run the Patriot offense as coordinator. His offense has arguably been the best in the NFL, which ultimately bears little predictive power for how he will fare at Penn State. Before his arrival, Tom Brady and the Patriots were doing just fine, and there's a long history of Belichick coordinators failing miserably once they strike out on their own.
Making matters more difficult, O'Brien will walk into a hornets' nest at Penn State, an institution whose image has been irrecoverably tarnished. The Nittany Lion program will face civil lawsuits that will further darken the brand and draw out the recovery process. More accomplished coaches, unsurprisingly, turned down overtures from the Penn State administration, despite the deluded best hopes of the fanbase.
Western Pennsylvania, a place Ohio State cherry-picked in recruiting under Jim Tressel, will likely remain ripe for Urban Meyer. Nothing about O'Brien suggests he can compete with Meyer on the recruiting trail.
Michigan Beats Virginia Tech, 23-20, Wins First BCS Bowl In 12 Years
Michigan kicker Brendan Gibbons hit a 37-yard field goal in overtime to give the Wolverines a Sugar Bowl victory over Virginia Tech, their first BCS bowl win in 12 years. It was a sloppy, ugly, malnourished contest between two teams who probably did not deserve to be there, but the first Sugar Bowl since 1945 containing two programs outside the top ten was entertaining, at least in the sense that carnivals and rodeos are entertaining.
Virginia Tech blew a dominant first half by failing to score touchdowns, settling for two field goals instead, and suffering a wacky pair of plays to end the half. After out-gaining Michigan 5-to-1 and stopping Denard Robinson dead in his tracks for almost the entire first half, the Hokies gave up a busted coverage, tipped-ball touchdown with 49 seconds left in the second quarter. Then, Virginia Tech fumbled the ensuing kickoff, stopped Michigan on three downs, and presented the Wolverines yet another gift, this one a tipped-pass catch on a fake punt. Michigan kicked a field goal and went in to halftime ahead 10-6, a fortuitous score after being dominated for 29 minutes.
The final stats were heavily slanted in favor of Virginia Tech. The Hokies gained 377 yards, or 4.97 yards per play, to 184 yards and 3.5 yards per play for Michigan. Michigan allowed Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas to drive downfield repeatedly, but tightened up once the Hokies entered the redzone.
The victory capped off an extremely lucky first season for Brady Hoke. Not only did his biggest rival, Ohio State, unexpectedly implode before the season began, but he received an easy schedule with the most difficult non-conference opponent an 8-5 Notre Dame. He missed Penn State and Wisconsin and received Nebraska and Ohio State at home.
With a significantly tougher schedule next season, and with the loss of Mike Martin and David Molk, it's doubtful Michigan will win 10 regular season games again.
Gators Beat Buckeyes, Two Miserable Seasons End
The Florida Gators defeated Ohio State in the Gator Bowl today, 24-17. Both offenses were poor, both defenses played well, and the difference came through two special teams breakdowns that led to touchdowns for the Gators.
Florida struck first on a 17-yard pass from John Brantley to Deonte Thompson late in the first quarter. The two teams had traded possessions before Brantley completed seven passes and orchestrated the 80-yard drive. The embattled Brantley, who received criticism for his tepid play this season, put together a solid final showing in a Gator uniform. He was not spectacular, or even very good, but he completed 12 of 16 pass attempts (75%) for 132 yards and a touchdown. His one real mistake, an interception by Tyler Moeller, came on a tipped pass that should have been caught.
Ohio State responded after recovering a botched snap by Florida center Jonotthan Harrison, which occurred two plays after Dan Herron had fumbled the ball and the Gators had recovered. Braxton Miller led an 8-play, 72-yard drive capped off with a crisp touchdown pass to Devier Posey. Ohio State overloaded the left side of their formation with receivers, leaving Posey singled on the backside, and Miller threw a bullet to Posey on a slant route, tieing the game at 7-7.
The score would not remain tied for long, however. On the ensuing kickoff, the right side of Ohio State's coverage unit broke down and allowed Gator speedster Andre Debose to break through for a 99-yard touchdown gallop. It was a deflating event, after the Buckeyes had scraped their way downfield for a touchdown only to fall behind seconds later.
Miller drove the offense into Florida territory late in the second quarter, but suffered a terrible sack at Florida's 19-yard line when Jaye Howard jumped the snap count and toppled into him immediately. It was a terrible outcome on third-and-six, denying the Buckeyes a chance to tie the game again. It was doubly frustrating, too, coming after Miller had missed a wide open Posey in the corner of the endzone on first down. Ohio State settled for 37-yard Ben Buchanon field goal, and the Bucks went in to halftime trailing 14-10.
A Quick Primer: The Florida Offensive and Defensive Strategy
The Florida Gators underwent a full-scale strategic makeover with Will Muschamp taking over for Urban Meyer, particularly on the offensive end. Gone is Meyer's 'spread' offense, with Muschamp wanting to bring Florida's offense to a pro-style, lead zone run game in line with his mentor, Nick Saban's Alabama. As Tyler describes, this changeover has taken place in fits and starts. Muschamp wants to create a team in the image of Saban's, but it is unclear whether he has the personnel to do it.
Offense
Offensively, Muschamp brought in Charlie Weis to lead the offensive changeover. Spencer Hall and Chris Brown do a great job explaining Weis' offensive philosophy here and here. Weis' philosophy might be he does not have a philosophy, and his Florida offense reflected that. Sometimes he features run-heavy teams; sometimes he leads teams that cannot run the football. In broad terms, Weis looked to control the ball through a combination of a standard pro-style run game and ball control pass routes, such as stick, option routes, and screens. Florida's offense then attempted to take deep shots off of plays such as the deep cross. Weis also attempted to mix in some spread elements to utilize the available personnel, to varying success.
Gator Bowl Preview: Florida Defense Presents Problems
What: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
When: Monday, January 2nd; 1:00 p.m.
Where: Everbank Field; Jacksonville, Florida
Television: ESPN2
Gators' Record: 6-6
Opposing Coverage: Alligator Army
The Gator defense fared better than the offense in Will Muschamp's first season as head coach, which makes sense given the state of the Florida roster and Muschamp's reputation as a defensive guru. Already a unit that possessed a history of performing well, driving a national championship run in 2006 and contributing to one in 2008, Urban Meyer left plenty of talent for his successor. Florida ranked 9th in total defense and 29th in scoring Meyer's last season. This year, the Gators rank 9th in total defense again and improved their scoring rank to 25th.
High points came against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida State, the latter game being a defining moment for coordinator Dan Quinn's unit despite a loss. The Gators held Florida State to under 100 yards and 1.7 yards per play, an astounding figure no matter the opponent let alone a BCS team. The Gators fell due to four interceptions by their quarterbacks, which directly led to one Seminole touchdown and set up short fields for two more. If Charlie Weis had only played Tresselball, like Jimbo Fisher did on the opposite sideline, the Gator defense may have delivered a victory.
The high points were matched by equally steep low points, however. Losses against Alabama and LSU saw the Gators cede over 35 points, 350 yards, and 5.3 yards per play in each game. Built for speed and pressure, the Gator front seven could not hold against the mammoth linemen the two SEC West powers trotted out. Both schools had great success on the ground, rushing for 454 yards and seven touchdowns combined.
Gator Bowl Preview: The Mystifying Offense of the Florida Gators
What: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
When: Monday, January 2nd; 1:00 p.m.
Where: Everbank Field; Jacksonville, Florida
Television: ESPN2
Gators' Record: 6-6
Opposing Coverage: Alligator Army
Under Urban Meyer, the Florida Gators were known for explosive offenses that piled up points and buried opposing defenses beneath a deluge of speed. In Meyer's final season at Florida, 2010, the Gators lost their explosive reputation as Meyer tried morphing the offense from a pure spread-option scheme into a multiple one, exchanging mobile Tim Tebow for statue John Brantley in the process.
Following Meyer's retirement, the Gators hired Will Muschamp, who in turn hired Charlie Weis to install a pro-style offense that would better fit Brantley's abilities. How well did the new Gator offense work in 2011?
Not well. The Gators ranked 102nd in total offense and 76th in points scored, mirroring the offensive troubles we've seen Ohio State experience the past year. Brantley, a senior, played better than a year ago, but failed to achieve the results expected of a former five star quarterback recruit. Weis, who faced near constant criticism over his play-calling, bolted to become the head coach at Kansas, leaving running backs coach Brian White to form the gameplan and call plays for the Gator Bowl.
Florida's last game, in particular, left a rancid taste in the mouth of Gator fans who witnessed a 7-point, 184-yard meek showing against rival Florida State. Brantley threw three interceptions against the Seminoles before leaving with a concussion. His back-up, true freshman Jacoby Brissett, proceeded to toss an interception of his own, this one so infuriating that it caused at least one respected Gator blogger to question Brissett's future as Florida's future.
So, Buckeye fans, take heart. We have found our partner in offensive ineptitude, our frustrated twin soul.
Michigan Beats Ohio State, 40-34
And so it ends. Eight seasons, 2,926 days, and three head coaches later, Michigan has finally defeated Ohio State. The Buckeyes battled until the final minute, but the latest edition of The Game ended on a tipped-ball interception, sealing Michigan's 40-34 victory and exorcising considerable scarlet-and-grey demons.
The game began well for Ohio State. Corey "Philly" Brown corralled a 54-yard touchdown pass on the opening drive, and the defense halted Michigan's first series where it began. Then, following an Ohio State three-and-out, Denard Robinson made his presence known. Robinson scampered 41 yards on a lead draw play, scooting around Etienne Sabino and breaking past defenders for a touchdown. It would foreshadow a tough day for a Buckeye defense that struggled to consistently stop Robinson.
Michigan gained 444 yards, and the junior quarterback accounted for 337 of them. He ran for 170 yards on 26 carries and threw for 167 yards, completing 14 of 17 pass attempts with no interceptions. It was an excellent performance by Robinson, but he was almost upstaged by his true freshman opponent, Braxton Miller.
Although it ended in defeat, and although he did toss an interception, Miller undoubtedly played his finest game as a Buckeye. Offensive coordinator Jim Bollman installed an aggressive gameplan that called upon Miller often, and Miller met the challenge head-on. 14 of 25 passing, 235 yards, and two touchdowns, along with 100 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, gave Ohio State the offensive boost it needed to keep pace with a relentless Michigan attack.
After Robinson, and a questionable safety call, drove Michigan to a 16-7 lead, Miller remained poised and responded with two successful series of his own. Drew Basil capped a 42-yard drive with a field goal, and Miller ran in for a 19-yard touchdown on the following drive, giving the Bucks a 17-16 lead. Michigan would retake the lead on another Robinson touchdown run and then give it right back to Ohio State with poor secondary coverage. Miller hit senior receiver DeVier Posey on a 43-yard post route that left the halftime score at 24-23, Ohio State.
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